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Finance Bill

I will proceed for a little longer before I give way again. I will no doubt do so later, but I do not want the whole of my speech to be taken up by the hon. Gentleman, who, I am sure, Mr. Deputy Speaker, will be able to catch your eye in due time. Secondly, the Government are losing control over the current budget deficit, about which the Government’s projections have been proved wrong successively. I will quote from the Red Book, for those who do not want to read it, to give the flavour of the complacent and potentially deceptive way in which it is sometimes drafted. Paragraph 2.39, on page 27, states"““The estimated 2004–05 outturn for public sector net borrowing is £34.4 billion, compared with £34.2 billion projected in the 2004 Pre-Budget Report””" —six months ago—"““and £32.9 billion projected in Budget 2004””" —a year ago. Those figures seem very close. Anyone reading that would say ““It is fine. Everything is under control. The outcome is almost exactly what was predicted six months ago and a year ago.”” Let me read on, however."““For the public sector current budget, the estimated 2004–05 outturn shows a deficit of £16.1 billion compared with projected deficits of £12.5 billion and £10.5 billion in the 2004 Pre-Budget Report and Budget 2004 respectively.””" In other words, over the last six months the Treasury’s prediction of the current deficit has risen from £12.5 billion to £16.1 billion, and over a year it has risen from £10.5 billion to £16.1 billion. That means that in six months there has been an increase of a third in the estimated outturn for the deficit, and over the last year an increase of a good deal more than 50 per cent. All well-run businesses make forecasts. If a business’s forecast was found to be out by a factor of 50 per cent. every year, questions would be asked and answers required. There is no doubt that there is a series of instances of the Treasury’s missing its forecast.