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Ministry of Defence

The hon. Gentleman contradicts the point made by his hon. Friend the Member for North Durham (Mr. Jones). The term ““civil war”” is being mentioned more and more. We have been encouraged by Ministers not to talk about it, yet that is what we are heading towards. We should debate it in the House. What would be the financial consequences for our involvement in Iraq?The elections there were a positive step forward, but they galvanised the parties and the electorate along religious lines and into their ethnic groups. Consequently, the new National Assembly is unable to agree on a Prime Minister and fill the political vacuum. Granted, in certain areas, initiatives have been taken, but in Basra and other places political power rests not just with the local councils, but with the militias. They have taken advantage of the political vacuum. People seek refuge with the militias in Basra and in many major towns because they are scared and do not feel they are being looked after by the official authorities. The British Government say there is no civil war, yet 1,300 civilians were killed last month alone. There are 60 attacks a day, on average, and about 30 bodies are found on the streets every day in Baghdad. How high must the daily death toll rise before the Minister acknowledges that Iraq is in a state of civil war? The Minister spoke about contingency planning. I should like to know what will happen if the current plan is not adhered to. A comparison can be made with Bosnia and what happened in that country—three distinct ethnic groups, opinions and differences suppressed by a dictator whose authority was strengthened by outside threats, and when the dictator was removed, the lid came off, opinions could be expressed and the result was civil war. I have said previously in the Chamber that there is another possible solution to the situation in Iraq that we have not considered or put to the people of Iraq—that is, the managed partition of Iraq. It already exists. The hon. Member for North Durham says he has visited Iraq. If he has visited the Kurds in the north, he will know that they have their own Prime Minister. They even have their own airline. They are entirely segregated from the rest of Iraq and they have no intention of developing any stronger ties. They are quite happy to run their own affairs. The Yugoslav model that we are trying to promote should be abandoned in favour of the Czechoslovakian model. Some form of velvet revolution should be promoted to allow segregation and the development of regional areas, including Basra.