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Trident

If the hon. Gentleman will forgive me, we are debating not just the amendment but the whole principle of the relevance of nuclear weapons at this time. As he mentions the amendment, let me say that whatever decision is taken tonight, it is absurd to suggest that the House and the country could not reconsider that decision if, unexpectedly, there was the prospect of major progress on multilateral nuclear disarmament. The contracts for the new submarines will not be decided until 2012 at the earliest. Whatever Ministers might say, if the world moves in a much more favourable direction, decisions can be reconsidered and taken in the way the hon. Gentleman might wish. We live in a difficult and uncertain world. Russia is not turning into a modern, democratic society as we might have wished, and is rearming in a significant way. Russia under President Putin is no threat to the United Kingdom, but who can predict who might rule from the Kremlin and have available nuclear weapons with which to threaten the peace of the world in the next 50 years? Only a few years ago, a Mr. Zhirinovsky, who, interestingly enough, led a party called the Liberal Democrats, made considerable progress in moving towards power in Russia. Of course, he has been rebuffed, but none of us can be certain about what will happen in that country. The worry about the new states seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, such as Iran and North Korea, is that they do not have the tradition of restraint—until recently, India and Pakistan did not even introduce a hotline to minimise the risks associated with nuclear weapons. To imagine that this country’s security would somehow be safeguarded in a world in which new nuclear powers are coming forward and in which, were the advice accepted, western Europe was to be the one region that not only did not have the capacity to deal with such threats but had by its own choice ceased to have that capacity, would be very foolish. My right hon. and learned Friend the Member for Devizes referred, quite reasonably, to terrorist organisations. Of course we cannot threaten to use nuclear weapons against a terrorist organisation; but terrorist organisations are already seeking, and will continue to seek, to acquire the capacity to develop dirty bombs and other weapons of mass destruction, and they will look to rogue states—to Governments—to provide them. We know already that some Governments have been willing to provide terrorist organisations with the most vicious armaments. It is those Governments whom we can deter by making clear, as we must, that in the event of any attack involving weapons of mass destruction—certainly nuclear weapons—we would not simply go for the terrorists concerned. We would go for those who had supplied them as well, even—especially—if they were Governments who did not accept the proper international constraints. It is not as if we are saying that progress towards multilateral disarmament is either undesirable or unattainable. The Government are right to point to the fact that under successive Governments—both the last Conservative Government and this Labour Administration—the United Kingdom has moved further than other nuclear power in reducing its nuclear capability. I was Secretary of State for Defence when we made the decision to get rid of our free-fall nuclear capability, to get rid of tactical nuclear weapons, and to make the first substantial reductions in the number of warheads available for our Trident system. That policy has been pursued. I pay tribute to my right hon. Friend the Member for East Hampshire (Mr. Mates), who said that the time had come to begin discussions with France on possible co-operation. Any threat to France or the United Kingdom in this regard must be a threat to both, given the geographical proximity of our two countries. When the Conservatives were in office we initiated informal discussions with the French Government to establish whether there were common thoughts on nuclear doctrine and on the way forward. My right hon. Friend made some imaginative proposals in suggesting that this might be the time at which to take those discussions further. The Government deserve the House’s support not because this decision will be irreversible, but because it gives a clear indication of our national intent.