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Trident

I am grateful for the Secretary of State’s advice, but that was 30 years ago, and time has moved on—not only that, but it depends who we believe about the design life of these particular vessels. Until comparatively recently, we were told that the lifespan of the Vanguard class submarine was 30 years minimum—not 30 years maximum, not 25 years with a possible extension of another five years, but 30 years minimum. [Interruption.] It is all very well for Opposition Members to point to the Select Committee report, but I am telling the House what Ministers and senior members of the Ministry of Defence—including Lord Moonie, with whom I checked this information today—stated at the time, as a matter of public record. They were adamant that there would be a minimum life of 30 years. Is it not strange that our American friends base the life of their vessels from the ship-going period of their commission rather than from when they are first launched, as there is a gap? If the figures are fiddled around with, it is possible to argue, given the lead-in time and the lifespan that we now attribute to those vessels, that we should be putting in our orders now. It seems, however, that the figures—and, indeed, part of the science—have been conjectured to fit around the political desirability of taking a decision now. We are told that we have expert advice. The one issue on which I agreed with the Prime Minister on 4 December was the fact that such things are ““a matter of judgment””. It is indeed a matter of judgment, and for every scientist who says that this is what we should be doing now, other scientists can be produced who say the opposite. For example, Dick Garwin has already been mentioned, and advocates of the Select Committee’s paper will agree that he appeared before it. However, Dick Garwin did not speak, as someone claimed he did, only on behalf of Philip Coyle; he also spoke on behalf of Ted Postol, who designed the Trident system in the first place, and Frank von Hippel, who was one of the designers of the warheads that we copy. I have to say that if eminent scientists are giving advice—they actually believe in nuclear deterrence and are party to these decisions not only as scientists, but as leading members of various administrations—it behoves us to listen to what they have to say. We should not be bounced into taking a decision here tonight that pre-empts the sort of informed debate that needs to happen before the House can take a properly objective and science-based decision.