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Trident

I support the retention of Britain’s nuclear deterrent. I also support the renewal of Britain’s nuclear deterrent. I am sorry that the amendment tabled by my right hon. Friend the Member for Southampton, Itchen (Mr. Denham), my hon. Friend the Member for Slough (Fiona Mactaggart) and me was not selected. The choice before us today is to take no decision at all or to take an irrevocable decision to continue with Trident as our platform for nuclear deterrence over the next 40 years. If we support nuclear deterrence and renewal, we clearly need to look at the future of that deterrent, so we need to take decisions about how we approach the concept and design of a replacement nuclear deterrent. However, we live in a rapidly changing world. That was reflected in the strategic defence review, which stated that the strategic environment that we face today is very different from that of the previous 50 years. The review concluded:"““The challenge now is to move from stability based on fear to stability based on the active management of these risks, seeking to prevent conflicts rather than suppress them.””" What might that doctrine look like in the context of future nuclear policy? That was articulated well by a witness to the Defence Committee, Dr. Stocker, who said:"““In today’s so-called ‘second nuclear age’ where national survival is probably not at stake, threatening to devastate another society in total or in large part is neither appropriate nor credible, so actually deterrent credibility may now be based on our ability to threaten the least amount of damage to another society, but in a scenario in which nuclear weapons are relevant because somebody else is threatening to use nuclear weapons or other WMD””." According to that doctrine, is Trident the right replacement for Trident over the next 40 years? Does a system which was designed as part of a mutually assured destruction system fit that description of possible future deterrence? Is it wise to go ahead irrevocably with that system, without considering alternatives? It appears that there are alternatives, which should be considered in the process of renewal and in the context of concept and design, so that when we come to take a decision at gate entry, we have the concept and design most appropriate not for a cold war scenario, but for a continually changing world. As things stand, we may have a Trident system that lasts until a few years away from the time when we claim that we will have reduced our carbon emissions by 60 per cent. from 1990 levels and will be living in a different world and a different economy. We need to take decisions on design and concept, and on the future, but I am not convinced by the argument that we should commit ourselves irrevocably today. I do not believe that future investment hangs on this decision. I do believe, however, that a vote in Parliament before final commissioning, in addition to a decision to go ahead with development of concept and design, is the right way forward. I hope hon. Members will reflect on that when they consider our deterrent in future.