---

Trident

I will not give way; time is against us. China was also mentioned. The fact that it destroyed a satellite in space recently got hardly any coverage, but it shows how events are moving forward. We need to be aware of such events and react to them. Looking back in history, we see that the Falklands conflict came out of the blue. Who could have predicted it? More to the point, had the roles been reversed, and Argentina had the nuclear capacity rather than us, would we have dared to march in there? That point was made by my hon. Friend the Member for New Forest, East (Dr. Lewis) in a previous debate. Had Galtieri had the atomic bomb rather than us, major questions would have been asked if we had had to retake the Falkland islands. The White Paper is about downsizing but maintaining our nuclear capacity. Several hon. Members have questioned the costs involved. I am not a smoker, but I worked out on the back of my virtual fag packet that the proposals would cost every citizen of the United Kingdom 20p a week for the lifetime of the nuclear deterrent. That is cheaper than any car insurance available, and it is a small price tag, considering the catastrophic consequences of our getting this wrong. Many people have argued that we need the money for our conventional forces. They clearly do not know the Chancellor well enough if they think that if we had no more nuclear deterrent the money would go straight into our defence coffers. That would clearly not happen, as I think those on the Government Front Bench would agree. It has also been argued that we should extend the life of the Vanguard class submarines, but placing them in dry dock, replacing their reactors and carrying out complete refits would cost more than buying new submarines. That argument does not hold water. Nuclear powered submarines, be they Vanguard class or Ohio class, are as complicated as the space shuttle. That is why they cost so much money, and why we have to take care about what we buy. I wonder whether we should be looking to the Vanguard class or the Astute class of submarines for a more versatile platform that can fire Tomahawk missiles as well, as that would provide a bigger threshold for utilising the submarines in a different way. I pay tribute to the Royal Navy, an organisation that has looked after our nuclear deterrent for almost 40 years. It has been a responsible steward and a reliable custodian. Whatever the views of Members on both sides of the House, I hope that we can all join together to congratulate the Royal Navy on its hard work in providing that deterrent.