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London Population (ONS)

First, I congratulate the hon. Member for Bromley and Chislehurst (Robert Neill) on securing this evening’s debate. I thank him for raising the important issue of the compilation of statistics on London’s population. The hon. Gentleman explained that this is such an important issue because ONS population statistics are used to determine local government funding. Equally, they are used to inform local planning in respect of services for the future. It is precisely because of the importance of these statistics that ONS takes a great deal of care in making them as accurate as possible. ONS is currently involved in ongoing work to improve statistics. I will come on shortly to describe how those statistics are put together, and explain why some of the suggestions about flaws in the methodology are inaccurate. I would like to start, though, by talking briefly about how these statistics are used, because the impression is sometimes created that local government funding depends entirely upon population statistics. I will not describe in detail the funding formula used by local government—we are all familiar with it, especially with how it impacts on our own areas—not least because it is the responsibility of the Department for Communities and Local Government rather than the Treasury. However, I will say that it takes account of other factors, such as the ability of local authorities’ ability to raise revenue from council tax, alongside the population statistics, which are clearly important in themselves. There is also a process known as damping, which is used to ensure that all local authorities receive a minimum increase in grant, known as the floor. That floor means that even if population statistics were to show the population decreasing in an area, the local authority’s funding would still increase by a reasonable amount. Nevertheless, population statistics are clearly important, and they should be as accurate as possible. As well as being used for local government funding, they are used to develop and monitor economic and fiscal policy and to understand social change, as well as any policy implications that stem from it. These statistics are calculated as accurately as possible, using a clear and carefully designed methodology. One of the challenges for that methodology—it is only part of the task—is to factor in the impact of international migration on population levels. The hon. Gentleman has raised that matter in the House this evening. Migration is largely calculated on the basis of the international passenger survey. We have heard a number of things about the lack of accuracy in the IPS, but I should like to draw attention to areas where it is reasonably robust. First, it has been claimed that IPS is restricted to the major airports and that it does not include Victoria coach station, for example, where 20,000 people can arrive. Actually, it sampled 16 airports, 11 seaports and the channel tunnel. Clearly, it does not sample Victoria coach station, but that is simply because coaches from other countries cannot get there without passing through a port or the channel tunnel. The IPS picks up the inhabitants of the coach on its way through to Victoria coach station. Secondly, it is not the case that the international passenger survey’s sampling is carried out only during the working day, as critics have said. There is flexibility in when the sampling can take place, especially to include particular flights from particular countries that may arrive early at an airport.