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London Population (ONS)

The hon. Gentleman is right, and that is why the labour force survey offers extra insight, although I would be the first to say that it is not an actual count of all migrants wherever they are. Even if we could do that and afford to do it regularly, it would still provide only a snapshot of the situation, which, as he said, can be fluid. The IPS is more comprehensive than is often suggested, but the ONS is committed to ensuring that population statistics are as accurate as possible. It has been working this year on improving its methodology. Plans to do that were published in April. The ONS has held meetings with a number of users, including some London local authorities, to discuss planned changes. Those meetings have led to refinements to the proposals, which were outlined in material published yesterday. There have been workshops and feedback has been given. I expect the dialogue to continue as changes to the methodology to produce more accurate figures are put into effect. The improvements that the ONS is making to its methodology make the information more accurate and improve quality. In particular, migration estimates will now draw on the labour force survey in addition to the IPS, which will help to reflect what migrants do after they have entered the country and where they settle. There is some evidence that the IPS may be particularly inaccurate for well-known places such as Westminster, Oxford or Manchester because people often fill in a place that they have heard of when asked about their destination, and that is not always where they end up living. Again, concerns have been raised about aspects of the labour force survey, including the suggestion that it does not take account of people in multi-occupied dwellings. Although it does not take account of people in communal establishments, such as halls of residence, it does cover all types of private households, including those that are in multi-occupied dwellings. While response rates to the survey for multi-occupied dwellings are lower than those for single household dwellings, the weighting of the sample to take account of age, gender and region goes some way to correcting that. There have been improvements and a process of ongoing dialogue with local authorities, including London local authorities. I expect there to be an ongoing liaison. The improvements in the methodology improve in particular the regional and local distribution of international migrants in the statistics that the ONS produces. Combined sources of such statistics have strengths that increase the robustness and the likely accuracy of the results, rather than taking the results from a single survey. The improved methodology will now be applied to revise population statistics for 2002 to 2005 and to produce 2006 mid-year population estimates, all of which will be released in August. The improvements will not change the trends demonstrated by the existing methodology’s estimates. In particular, figures based on the improved methodology will not show either population or migration levels decreasing. Across England and Wales, the original method showed an increase in population due to long-term international migration. The improved methodology increases that slightly by 28,000. For London, the existing method implied an increase of 396,000 between 2002 and 2005 as a result of long-term international migration. The revised method reduces that increase to 336,000, but that is not the same as saying that migration is decreasing, and it is certainly not saying that the population is decreasing. Instead, the revised figures show that migration to London remains on an upward trend, but at a lower level than the estimates suggested. I should re-emphasise that the changes are being made to improve the methodology and accuracy. As well as making the statistics more accurate this year, the ONS has planned further improvements for subsequent years. In particular, an inter-departmental taskforce on international migration statistics was set up in 2006 and has made a number of strategic recommendations for further improvements in the years to 2012. The ONS is already taking forward some of those recommendations, and will publish a full response later in the summer. The ONS also published a revisions policy earlier this month, setting out the principles for further revisions to population statistics, and it has been working with local authorities and Government Departments to identify how new and existing information sources—such as GP and school registrations—can be used to inform migration estimates and address local issues in population estimation. That goes to the heart of what Members have been talking about. However, that is not as easy as it might seem. The statistics published yesterday on national insurance numbers issued to overseas nationals caught the media’s attention and have been mentioned in our debate, but basing population estimates on national insurance numbers could be misleading, as some people apply for them but do not use them, while others need them only for a short period. In other words, national insurance numbers provide an inflow figure, which is not necessarily a net figure, and many of those who applied for national insurance numbers might have already left the country. National insurance numbers do not show the flow out; they only show the flow in. That brings me on to my final point, on those who come to the UK only for a short period. The ONS population statistics that I have talked about rely upon the UN definition of a long-term migrant—someone changing their country of usual residence for at least a year. We believe that that is the most appropriate and reasonable definition to use and the most realistic way of accurately determining the population levels in different areas. We recognise that short-term migration is also important, as is churn, but such trends are difficult to pick up on accurately and in a timely fashion without spending one’s whole life getting snapshots of an ever-changing situation. That is why I am particularly interested in discovering how we can use other indicators and statistics to get a closer handle on a more disaggregated level on what is happening. We believe that the annual definition is the most appropriate one to use, but the ONS has been working hard on producing innovative estimates, and will publish national figures later in the year. However, this is a new and difficult area and we cannot expect accuracy immediately as we feel our way towards a solution.