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Severn Barrage

My Lords, I do not remember whether it was a law of physics or of mathematics that was drummed into me at school—for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. After some years’ experience in this House, I sometimes think that that is also a law of politics, but that is life. We all need to remind ourselves that if we and mankind in general fail to curb our appetite for using fossil fuels and producing carbon dioxide and the other sophisticated carbon compounds that we pour out, the whole environment will be ruined anyway. There will be no Severn estuary as we know it anymore because, if sea temperatures and sea levels rise, the fauna and flora will change inextricably. We are in a situation where action must be taken. I was going to refer to the noble Lord, Lord Stern, but as he is not here yet—he will join us next week—I will say Sir Nicholas Stern. Sir Nicholas said that not taking action was not an option. We have to do things. Of course, the first thing we have to do is get our energy without producing carbon dioxide. One or two of us in this Chamber spent a full day earlier in the week discussing the Climate Change Bill, so we are already thoroughly immersed in this subject. But it is necessary to remind ourselves of the scale of the problem that we are looking at. The Government have pledged so far to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 60 per cent from the 1990 position by 2050. That is probably 65 per cent or 70 per cent from where we stand today. One of the real pressures during the debate on the Climate Change Bill was whether in fact we did not already have sufficient information to suggest that there ought to be an 80 per cent reduction. If you start to envisage that economy, just over 40 years hence, there are one or two industries where carbon dioxide emissions will have to continue. I am thinking specifically of the smelting industries. There is no alternative there, because smelting is a chemical reaction and you cannot use electricity for heating in order to reduce ores to base metal. Some industries will have to emit carbon dioxide. What we are really talking about is a world in which all the energy that we use for everything other than those basic industries comes from renewable green sources or nuclear power. It is a much greater change than the 2020 figure that we float easily. Of course, it is much closer, but the 2020 figure needs to more than double by 2050. It needs to quadruple, so we have a really huge problem. That is the first thing, and I mention that in this debate to get into our minds the context in which we are standing. We do not yet know what will be the best options. Many people are saying that we must be open and have full-time to study to come to sensible conclusions. I agree with that, but we also need to recognise the immense pressure that we are under. Inevitably, mistakes will be made and we should not worry about that too much. If we are going to make progress, we have to take the chance that some of the things we do may be wrong. So then we come back to the specific issue that we are debating: the Severn barrage. I am slightly interested in the comparison that has been made between building a barrage in the Severn estuary and the possibility of building 150 lagoons up and down the estuary, as if 150 lagoons up and down the estuary would not irremediably alter the estuary. They might not alter it in the same way as a single barrage would, but they unquestionably would alter the estuary. We have not heard whether they would produce as much electricity or more; nor have we heard what the cost might be. My noble friend Lord Liverpool suggested that one lagoon might cost £100 million. If that is so, I merely point out that the 150 lagoons in the estuary will then cost the same as the barrage. Whether we get the same amount of electricity out of it or not we do not yet know. I am into the business of producing equal and opposite arguments, which is not a piece of ground that I particularly want to stand on. However, I should enter yet another thought about estuarial barrages into the debate: I remind the House that the Environment Agency is discussing the possibility of a barrage across the Thames to protect London, if both the east coast continues to sink, which it undoubtedly will, and the sea level continues to rise, which it seems to be doing.