---

Gaza

My Lords, I believe that this debate, at least in its better moments, is enlarging our horizons by placing Gaza in the context where it belongs. Gaza presents just one facet of related conflicts stemming from the demise of the Ottoman Empire and the later creation of the state of Israel. There are, for example, the unresolved conflicts of Lebanon, the uncertain condition of Iraq and the hardships of more than 25 million Kurds in Turkey, Iran, Syria and, to a lesser extent, Iraq. The dry Middle East has further potential for disputes over water supplies. Fortunately, a new consensus has emerged on Palestine. Ephraim Halevy, Colin Powell, General Zinni, Martin Indyk, Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Chris Patten and, rather belatedly, Mr Blair all say that we must now engage with Hamas and promote Palestinian unity. We should distinguish between the Change and Reform platform, which won the 2006 elections, and the al-Qassam Brigades, which have many rockets. Political progress, helped by releasing prisoners, should come first. Decommissioning of weapons and economic progress will then follow. I regret very much that there has been no multilateral process designed to resolve brutal wars and to prevent new conflicts since the Madrid conference of 1991. That made a promising start but, alas, there has been no follow-up. The lack of effective collective focus partly explains why western policy in the region has been such a failure since the time of the Oslo agreements and the second intifada of 2000. This failure has occurred despite the helpful proposals of the Arab League. Since January 2006, western policies have become disastrous. They set impossible preconditions. They failed entirely to prevent two appalling wars, in South Lebanon in August 2006 and in Gaza in recent weeks. The policies failed to influence Israel and totally alienated Hamas and much Islamic opinion throughout the world. Given these failures, many people will warmly welcome the Cost of Conflict in the Middle East, a report just produced by the Strategic Foresight Group of Mumbai with wide international backing. This charts spending on wars, plus the vast annual costs of military, police, security, relief and aid. Despite such spending, I am informed that 91 per cent of Israelis still feel insecure. The report points out that the overall standard of living in the Middle East would have doubled had comprehensive peace been available from 1991. It assesses the cost of lost opportunities and the potential of new, linked-up economies. I trust that this report will lead to changed policies in East and West, and will stimulate co-operative behaviour. It seems to me that the Middle East situation today is not unlike that of Europe in 1945, except of course that there are no absolute winners or losers. In this situation, I agree very much with the noble Lords, Lord Howell and Lord Wallace, that it is important to revive multilateral approaches to Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Israel, Iraq and Iran, calling on the help of Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. This, surely, was the wisdom of the Baker-Hamilton report to the American President. It is so important to transcend the obsessive nature of individual conflicts. We should remember how the small Benelux and the wider European Coal and Steel Community paved the way to the now large European Union. Modest surrenders of national sovereignty can lead to huge gains for the people as a whole. We should start to plan now for a Middle East security and co-operation conference, which might develop into a permanent organisation. The OSCE helped to end the Cold War in Europe; the Middle East now needs something similar to overcome the shooting wars that have killed many thousands. The Council of Europe promotes intergovernmental co-operation and acts as the custodian of human rights. Europe, of course, does not have all the answers: every region must find what works and suits it best. The Middle East can build on existing foundations, such as the Arab League, the Organisation of the Islamic Conference and the Gulf Co-operation Council. We should envisage a Middle East Marshall plan, marrying the wealth of the oil producers to the technology and organisational skills of the West. As an example of what can be done within a single divided country, I shall describe something from Iraq. Its senior religious leaders have been meeting regularly for some years, with an external facilitator. They have thus come to respect and trust each other so that they can work for national reconciliation. Such has progress been made that last August a joint Shia/Sunni fatwa was issued against sectarianism, communal violence and especially suicide bombing. This unprecedented joint message is now being passed to every village, town, mosque, church and school. I was with the Iraqi religious leaders at their meeting in Beirut last November. Their work is an example of what can be done to overcome divisions that have lasted well over 1,000 years. I suggest that we need to multiply initiatives of this kind throughout the conflict zones. Similar work should be tried with leaders in the media and with opinion formers who can reach the secular populations. In Iraq, work has also begun with the political parties, the militias and the media. All of us, outside the Middle East and within it, need to enlarge our vision. We should think in regional and multilateral terms. All professions, not just diplomats, can and should contribute to peace-building. I have mentioned religious leaders but parliamentarians, business people, the media, NGOs and educational institutions can all help to create trust and confidence. Peace has to be built from the ground upwards, as well as from the top downwards. If Northern Ireland has taught us anything, it is that the political and religious extremes on all sides have to be included if peace is to be durable. Nothing less than the widest mobilisation of human energy will suffice if we are to prevent new and repeated destructions of Gaza. Peace is possible but it will require hard and persevering work on all sides. That is another reason for welcoming former Senator George Mitchell as the United States special envoy.