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Finance Bill

I am very pleased that the hon. Gentleman has mentioned the IMF, because that is the comparison that I want to make. That was a godsend to the media, who were out to trash the Budget. The fact that the IMF published the figures on the same day meant that the automatic assumption of most of the media comment was that the IMF figures were right and the Treasury figures were wrong. The reality is that the Treasury has a much better record of forecasting the British economy than the IMF. Let me come to the specific points made by the hon. Member for Bournemouth, East (Mr. Ellwood). The Budget book suggests that there is a recession of 3.5 per cent. in the current year. The average of all recent forecasts suggests a negative of 3.7 per cent. The representative of the Scottish National party, the hon. Member for Dundee, East (Stewart Hosie), said earlier that the OECD had today suggested 3.7 per cent. The IMF is at 4.1 per cent. If we take the average as reasonably accurate in the circumstances—I accept that forecasts for this year can be taken to be reasonably accurate—the Treasury is closer to the reality.