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Finance Bill

Of course, but they are a data point in a growing and increasingly clear picture about what is happening to retail sales. That is in sharp contrast to what happened to retail sales in the 1990s recession, caused by the policies of the Conservative party, when there was a very different trajectory. In the first quarter of 2009, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was minus 1.9 per cent., but retail sales growth was plus 0.9 per cent, which is a remarkable phenomenon. How is that remarkable performance to be explained? In part, of course, it is because of the cut in VAT. Those who argued when the announcement was made that it would have no effect on retail sales were clearly mistaken. The hon. Member for Henley (John Howell), whose contribution I enjoyed, took the view at the start of his speech that the VAT cut would have no effect. I say to him that if that is his view, he should simply examine the clear evidence from retail sales. To be fair to him, at the end of his speech he said that it was not possible to know whether the VAT cut had succeeded, so I suppose that that is at least progress in the right direction. We can examine retail sales, and we can examine what Goldman Sachs said a couple of months ago about some earlier figures. It stated:""With clothing and footwear…making the biggest contribution, it appears that the VAT cut was instrumental in driving this strength."" There is also the more recent report, which I am pleased that Conservative Members have now had the chance to have a look at, by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in the name of an adviser to the Conservative party—or a former adviser, I am not quite sure which—with the title, "Credit where credit's due—the VAT cut is working". When the VAT cut was introduced, it was roundly condemned by the Opposition parties. But speaking of credit where credit is due, I pay tribute to the Liberal Democrats, who in their amendment at least acknowledge that it is right to look at the evidence before drawing a conclusion. I welcome that progress, and I hope that even the Conservative party might in the end not prove impervious to the evidence that is mounting, and will continue to mount, in the coming months. Today's data are another significant piece of evidence. To be fair to the Conservative party, the shadow Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform always recognised the likely effectiveness of a VAT cut in boosting the economy. The hon. Member for South-West Hertfordshire (Mr. Gauke) declined to dissent from that view, so I take it that he agrees, although he was not able to say so. Certainly the hon. Members for Braintree (Mr. Newmark) and for Poole (Mr. Syms) both endorsed it in their remarks. I hope that in the end, other Opposition Members will come round.