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Finance Bill

There is always Treasury modelling, some of it based on tax returns, which are confidential and cannot be shared—I am sure that the hon. Gentleman knows that. The Oxford Economics model assumes that alcohol consumers are significantly more price sensitive than the Treasury model suggests. It fails to account for the fact that increases in the price of one type of alcohol often lead to switching to another. It therefore suggests that if beer sales decrease, no other type of alcohol is drunk, which is clearly not true.