---

Finance Bill

I am sorry to misquote the noble Lord. I thought that that was what he was getting at, but never mind. I apologise to him, but I am not apologising to the noble Lord, Lord Sassoon. I want him to give us an assurance. In the event of the cuts turning out to be as bad as many are now indicating, I am not alone in suggesting that that could reduce economic growth, not see it increase. The ITEM Club, which is truly independent, has said the same as the IMF in suggesting, based on Treasury figures, that it would have an effect on economic growth. Finally, Martin Wolf, in a recent article in the Financial Times, put the arguments well for whether the economy should be tightened in current circumstances. He is a highly regarded journalist, as I am sure the noble Lord will agree, and he put the central issue as follows. If tightening is correct, which is the Government’s policy, "““failure would bring fiscal and financial shocks””." On the other hand, if tightening is not correct, it might, "““threaten recovery and might trigger further … shocks””." The consequences of tightening, as I have said, could be very serious indeed. Nevertheless the Government, with Lib Dem support, seem bent on pursuing that policy. I am not sure whether the coalition partners fully appreciated what they were agreeing to. The Government, however, have always said—I started off with this—that there is no alternative. In fact, as I have shown from the OBR’s own forecasts, there is an alternative. I hope that the Government will take it.