---

National Insurance Contributions Bill

My Lords, clearly, if there was more in the fund, a greater part of NHS expenditure could come via that route, but I am not clear that there would be any significant consequence in terms of the outcomes we are talking about. NHS expenditure will be determined by the allocation that has been given in the spending review. The noble Lord may quibble about the nature of the numbers and what is covered by them, but they are set out with great clarity in the review. For this purpose we are talking about some relatively simple arithmetic in terms of what would happen if there were to be any shortfall. If there is a surplus, funds that do not go to the NHS go to the National Insurance Fund; that is what has led to the considerable current balance. We are talking about a process where a fund has accumulated over the long term and we need that surplus, although it is predicted to fall, in order to fund future pensions. In summary, one way of looking at it is that in the short term a high balance will help to tackle a deficit. Indeed, as the noble Lord heard from his officials in the past, and as has been explained to me, that balance is invested with the Commissioners for the Reduction of the National Debt.