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National Insurance Contributions Bill

My Lords, I shall speak also to the other amendments in this group. As we discussed at Second Reading, and as was pursued in another place, we have concerns that the national insurance holiday is targeted by crude geographical area and not by any more objective assessment of need. These amendments variously look to remove Greater London, London, the south-east and the eastern region as excluded regions. As we have just discussed and as we shall discuss further under the next grouping, there are practical ramifications and administrative costs in excluding certain parts of the UK from the benefit of the holiday. The Government’s chosen method of targeting is to look at those areas with the greatest reliance on public sector employment and to do that at regional level. Given that the RDAs are being abolished—that is about to be debated in another place—and that different economic groupings are being established through LEPs, can the Minister say on what basis the analysis has been undertaken at a regional level? We certainly acknowledge that the scale and speed of cuts in public spending will have devastating effects on unemployment, both public and private. If the basis of targeting is reliance on public sector employment, perhaps the Minister can say a little more about how this measure is determined. For example, does the Minister accept that direct employment in the public sector is only part of the story? Parts of the private sector are as heavily reliant on public expenditure as perhaps those in the public sector that provide direct employment. That can be for a combination of reasons, including previous outsourcing of functions of central or local government and the reliance on public sector construction contracts. For instance, the Building Schools for the Future programme would have provided significant employment opportunities. For example, we know that the Government have been recruiting via agency companies in order to keep head counts down. Perhaps the Minister can say whether those arrangements are included as part of the public sector. Another issue to consider is the extent to which spending cuts are borne fairly and proportionately across areas. In devising this policy, what analysis was undertaken of how spending cuts are being borne across the country? Have the Government sought to differentiate between front-line and other staff? We certainly accept that levels of public sector employment are one measure of vulnerability to spending cuts, but by taking a regional perspective the Government are averaging out high reliance on the public sector in some parts of the excluded regions. Debate in another place highlighted a number of constituencies in the excluded regions which were in the top 10 for public sector employment. These include Oxford East in the south-east, Lewisham East in London and Luton North in the eastern region. It was highlighted that Newham has a public sector employment rate of 33.6 per cent but is excluded from the holiday, whereas Macclesfield, with a rate of 11.8 per cent, is included. The Government’s approach does not recognise differences within regions and could be giving rise to significant deadweight costs. However, at a regional level, London has a higher employment rate than three regions which are not excluded. It is difficult to see the sense in that. The east of England is the region that I know best. Currently, the east of England business start-up rate is below that of London, the south-east and some international comparator regions. The region requires a skills base that better meets the needs of regional businesses. It is also underperforming in terms of levels of GVA compared with London and the south-east and has a marked east-west split in economic performance. Workplace earnings vary acutely, with workers employed in Suffolk, Norfolk and Southend-on-Sea being the lowest paid in the region. Despite the region’s overall high employment rate, areas of high and persistent unemployment remain. This has a major impact on levels of deprivation and health inequalities. While some districts in the region are among the most prosperous in the country, 11 districts are rated among the most deprived in England. The February labour market statistics are very worrying, particularly the 66,000 increase in the unemployment rate among 16 to 24 year-olds. It appears that the benefit of the holiday is simply not available to some of the worst affected areas. Two of the top 15 constituencies in the UK with the highest unemployment rates are denied—both Luton constituencies, ranked 168th and 269th, are excluded. A detailed analysis of deprivation data suggests the same picture. Some areas of greater affluence are included in the scheme ahead of others with greater levels of deprivation. We accept that public sector employment is in some measure a proxy for vulnerability to spending cuts and that an incentive for private sector businesses can help. It is also accepted that if there are to be geographical exclusions and inclusions, the broader these are the less likelihood there is of displacement activity. However, the scale of the exclusions fundamentally calls into question the fairness of the policy as cast. I beg to move.