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High-Speed Rail

I am struggling to follow some of my hon. Friend's numbers, because I think that he might be looking at the numbers from the original business case, not from the current one. I do not want to address his points specifically because those numbers do not quite register with me. I apologise for that. Passenger forecasts are another major assumption in the business case, relying on a 216% rise in demand for train travel. That figure remains wildly optimistic, in spite of being downgraded from the original business case, in which growth of 267% was forecast. The Department for Transport's own national travel survey shows that overall transport demand is no longer growing with GDP. Eurostar's passenger numbers in 2009 had reached only 37% of the level that was forecast, as a result of building the HS1 link. The Public Accounts Committee took evidence from the Department for Transport on that point and was reassured by it that lessons had been learned and that any future major project would factor in more severe downside assumptions—that has clearly not been the case. The only comparable forecasts for long distance rail travel by 2036 are from Network Rail, which predicts a range of growth of 45% to 89%, versus that forecast by HS2 Ltd in its original business case of 133% growth by 2033. I urge the Department for Transport to look closely again at that assumption. Of course, in cash terms HS2 will never pay for itself. Once built, only one third of the total claimed benefits will be captured through fares. The value of the net revenues once it has been built—with a presumption of fares of £14 billion, less operating costs of £6 billion over a 60-year project life—will cover only less than half of the capital costs. At a time when families up and down the country are feeling the pinch, we must make sure that infrastructure projects offer value for money. Many people would argue that not a penny will be spent until 2015 anyway, but between 2009 and 2015 the Department for Transport expects to spend around £1 billion just on preparing the way for high-speed rail. Secondly, on the environmental impact, HS2 Ltd itself says that the project is, at best, carbon neutral. It predicts that 65% of passengers will either transfer from existing rail services, where faster trains inevitably increase carbon emissions, or are additional new journeys as a result of the faster trains, which will also increase emissions. The shorter journeys by air that will transfer to HS2, will ironically, as my hon. Friend the Member for North Warwickshire (Dan Byles) said, provide more capacity at our regional airports for cheaper long-haul flights. It is estimated that the modal shift from car to high-speed train will be approximately 7%. In fact, HS2 Ltd forecasts that the traffic volumes on the M1 will be reduced by only 2% as a result of HS2. So, it is not green. There will also be a significant environmental impact during construction, as well as permanently, to the English countryside, wildlife and historic sites. Thirdly and fourthly, on the prospects for job creation and regeneration, the Department for Transport claims that HS2 will create 30,000 new jobs. Some 9,000 will be construction jobs and are likely to be temporary. The rest are skewed towards property development and retail near stations.