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High-Speed Rail

It is a great pleasure to speak under your chairmanship, Mr Walker. I add my congratulations to my hon. Friends the Members for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) and for North Warwickshire (Dan Byles) and to other right hon. and hon. Members who lobbied for the debate. I wanted to speak for three reasons. First, I have a long-standing interest in the subject. One reason why I came into politics was to help shape the big strategic decisions that we have to take as a country. I do not want us to look back in 30 or 40 years and realise that we have made the wrong decision. Secondly, I have a local, constituency interest. My Milton Keynes seat is not on the proposed route for High Speed 2, but it could benefit from the knock-on effects that High Speed 2 would deliver in freeing up capacity on the west coast main line for both commuter services and longer distance stopping services. Anyone who wants to commute from Milton Keynes in peak hours will know that we are severely overcrowded. My other local interest is that although the line does not come through Milton Keynes, it comes close enough for me to have a real understanding of the fact that communities along the line of route will be severely affected. We should not just dismiss the concerns of local residents as though they were Lady Ludlow in ““Cranford”” objecting to the coming of the railways. They are real communities with real concerns about the impact of the line. Thirdly and most significantly, I am a member of the Select Committee on Transport and we have recently agreed to conduct a strategic inquiry into high-speed rail. It will not relate specifically to this line of route, but look more widely at the strategic cases for and against high-speed rail in the United Kingdom. I can genuinely say that I will consider all the arguments and evidence objectively. If the strategic case is not made or the detailed plans do not meet the strategic need, I will not support them. However, my starting point is to give high-speed rail in the United Kingdom a fair wind. As my hon. Friend the Member for Skipton and Ripon (Julian Smith), who is no longer in his place, and my hon. Friend the Member for Warrington South (David Mowat) have mentioned, the other countries that have developed high-speed rail networks—Spain, Germany, France, China and Japan—cannot all be wrong. Yes, there will be differences of detail, but they cannot all be wrong, so we must give high-speed rail a fair wind. It is clear that we need additional north-south rail capacity in the United Kingdom. Anyone travelling on the west coast main line knows that. I will not go into the detailed arguments now, because of the time constraints. Upgrades could be made to that line and to the east coast main line. There is the Rail Package 2—RP2—project. There are measures such as lengthening trains, improving signalling and removing some of the pinchpoints. All those things can and, I would argue, should happen, but I fear that that is not the complete answer. Those upgrades would buy time. If the High Speed 2 proposals went through, the first trains would start running in 2026—15 years from now. The upgrades to the classic rail network would buy us time over those 15 years, and they should happen, but we need to consider what comes next, because I fear that the upgrades have a finite capacity. This is not an either/or situation; we need to consider both. The nub of the issue is this: what long-term strategic capacity do we need on our railways? I hope that in the course of our investigation in the Select Committee, we will be able to test robustly the likely demand in respect of freight and passengers, for both inter-city and commuter journeys. All the evidence is that there will be upward pressure, but we need to test that robustly. We also need to consider whether High Speed 2 will be active or passive in meeting that demand. Do we simply assume that that increase in demand will happen, or is there a finite point at which, without any other economic change, a total number of journeys will be reached? In my view, it should be active in looking at how high-speed rail can stimulate economic growth. My hon. Friend the Member for North Warwickshire referred to the university of Barcelona, but there are also many other studies. I draw right hon. and hon. Members' attention to the work of Professor Roger Vickerman of the university of Kent, who has written widely on this subject and gave evidence to the Transport Committee in a separate inquiry that we conducted into transport and the economy. I will not summarise all his work—it is very detailed and complex—but one of his findings was that the issue is not just putting in a new line. That in itself will not be enough. It is what else happens, connecting towns and cities around the sites of the termini—the extra capacity and the linkage that go in there. That makes a difference.