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High-Speed Rail

There were some emotional comments earlier, and I shall try to avoid making any more in my remarks in opposition to HS2. In my view, any project of this scale should pass three key tests. Can we afford it, how effective is it, and will it achieve the kind of return on investment that justifies the expenditure? As we all know, HS2 will cost about £17 billion for the first part of the line, rising to £32 billion in total. That is more than we plan to spend on transport in the whole of next year, and more than we will collect in council tax in England and Wales. It comes at a time when we have to make considerable reductions in public spending in, for example, policing and defence. Although I respect the fact that the project will be carried out over many years, we should not pretend that it is somehow not extremely large or extremely expensive. The Department for Transport has said that the project is affordable. Its own website states, in answer to a question on affordability:"““The country can't afford not to invest in its future. All other major economies are pressing ahead with ambitious high speed rail plans - we cannot allow Britain to be left behind.””" I recently visited India with the International Development Committee, and we talked about the space programme in which the Indian Government are investing. I do not see the Minister for Universities and Science, my right hon. Friend the Member for Havant (Mr Willetts) coming before the House to seek its support for such a programme so that we do not get left behind. The Department for Transport also says that HS2 will cost only £2 billion a year, and that most of the expenditure will occur after the next election. That is a dangerous way to consider a project. Such an approach has seen Departments such as the Ministry of Defence end up with a £38 million spending black hole. Every project should be considered carefully, and the issue of cost not avoided just because it happens to fall many years in the future. Moreover, £2 billion a year is almost as much as we spend on the pupil premium, which could arguably do more for our competitiveness and productivity. Given the fiscal pressure that we are under and the number of schemes across the country that have to operate in tight financial circumstances, we should not so lightly throw around £2 billion. The scheme's objectives have changed several times. When the Conservative party first articulated its support for HS2, it said that it did so because the project would ensure that a third runway at Heathrow would not be necessary. Then it was because HS2 would be good for the economy and for better connectivity. Now it is because extra capacity is necessary, but how effective will HS2 be in achieving those goals? One of the biggest problems with the project, and part of the reason why the cost is so important, is that we cannot know for certain what good will occur because of the new line. We should be extremely careful in claiming benefits when we simply do not know exactly what they will be. Nevertheless, we should for one moment consider the nature of the economic world in which we live. Hundreds of years ago, during the industrial revolution, the necessity of physical access to materials and workplaces meant that being able quickly to get from one place to another had a considerable economic benefit. It was due to the development of the railways that Britain could take such a lead over competitor nations, but these days another economic revolution has occurred—the internet revolution. Increasingly, people do not need to move from one place to another because they can work from offices that can connect people all over the world to share data and hold meetings. Video conferencing is becoming more and more sophisticated and cost-effective, leading companies to reduce their travel and boost their productivity. Goods are made in several different locations, with the design and manufacturing taking place in totally different areas. That movement leaves HS2 looking more and more like a relic of our economic past. Increases in capacity are of course important, and I agree that we need to ensure that we can meet future demand and increase access for freight to reduce costs in the long term. The point is that capacity, not speed, will lead to increased economic benefits—the chairman of HS2 Ltd said so himself, publicly. Unlike countries such as France and Spain, which have created high-speed rail lines, we already have high levels of interconnectivity between our major urban areas; we are, after all, a relatively small island. Back in 2007, the Eddington transport study confirmed that to be the case. The Department for Transport accepted the study and its analysis. What is needed, therefore, is investment in our existing transport infrastructure to boost the capacity we so desperately need.