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High-Speed Rail

I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) on securing this debate. I shall start by agreeing with her on a few points, but, unfortunately, our paths will then diverge. We should not do high-speed rail just because the rest of the world is doing it. Just because every other country in Europe is forging ahead with this does not mean that we should—I accept that argument. We should not do High Speed 2 just because the business case for High Speed 1, and the reason why it went to St Pancras, was that it could be linked to the north. That should not be the reason why we do it. We should not do it just because of the carbon saved. As has been pointed out, the modal shift is quite small. We should not do it as cover for our plans in relation to Heathrow. We should do it only if three conditions exist: the business case has to be robust; we must be satisfied that there are transformational benefits; and, on a cash-flow basis, it has to be affordable. My hon. Friend the Member for Warwick and Leamington (Chris White) has talked about that final point, and I shall address that first. Roughly speaking, the cost in cash-flow terms is £2 billion a year, which is a great deal of money. However, it is, roughly speaking, the same as we are currently spending on Crossrail—I see the Minister nodding, which encourages me—and, by and large, it will start as Crossrail finishes. I support Crossrail and have no issue with it, but it is important that that point is understood. We agree that the business case is vital, and this debate must centre on it. Some of the points that have been made about the business case during this debate are misinformed. Yes, there have to be forecasts of the future—that is what a forecast does. As I said in an intervention, rail usage has increased by 5% per annum over the past decade and a half. The business case upon which this project is justified assumes that it will continue to increase at 1.4% per annum. I agree that that might be too high, but it is certainly not radical. The hon. Member for Coventry North West (Mr Robinson) made the point that the project is predicated on time savings. Yes, it is—it is a transport project and that is how we tend to justify such projects in terms of benefit. That is how Crossrail was justified and it will be how this is justified. Another point is often made—I want to address this before it gets too much currency. We can work on the train these days. We have personal computers and so on, and are therefore productive. That is true and the business case does not properly take it into account. It does not take into account the fact that productivity of that nature exists and that, if someone is standing up on a crowded train, the losses are enormous. In fact, that precise issue is addressed on page 51 of the Department for Transport's business case. The fact is that the business cost ratio increases if productivity due to internet usage on a train is taken into account. I want to put a couple of things on the record in relation to transformational benefits. We can take the Barcelona view or we can take other views. During an earlier speech, somebody said that the train might not stop at Warrington. I agree, but that is not the point. The point is that the North-West chamber of commerce believes that the scheme will bring £8 billion-worth of benefits to my region. Those benefits will accrue to Warrington in the same way that they will accrue to Banbury and—dare I say it—Northampton. Let us at least get that clear. A recent report that KPMG produced for Greengauge 21 estimates that there will be an incremental, steady-state increase in jobs of 40,000 in the north and the north-west due to the scheme. That might not be right—I am pleased that the Select Committee on Transport is going to validate the numbers—but these are important transformational issues, and they must be taken seriously. My hon. Friend the Member for Colne Valley (Jason McCartney) is signalling to me—I think he wants to speak next. This debate must not be tarnished by nimbyism and all that goes with it. It is more important than that and too important for it. I accept that the most vociferous opposition comes from those counties that are impacted the most. In all fairness, I live in Cheshire and it may well be that, when the next bit is announced, I will be a nimby as well. Members are entitled to respect their constituents. I want to put on the record that I discovered during my research yesterday that two of the consultants who represent one of the most influential rail action groups against the proposal both live in Great Missenden. It is important, as we evaluate the scheme, that we get it right. Finally, mitigation is important and the hon. Member for Hammersmith (Mr Slaughter) has made some good points about it. We need to take it seriously, but it is not as important as the transformational benefits that may accrue from the scheme if it happens.