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Autumn Statement

Statement Let me start by placing squarely before the House of Commons and the British public the economic situation facing our country. Much of Europe now appears to be heading into a recession caused by a chronic lack of confidence in the ability of countries to deal with their debt. We will do whatever it takes to protect Britain from this debt storm while doing all we can—[Interruption.]—all we can to build the foundations of future growth. Today we set out how we will do that by demonstrating that the country has the will to live within its means and keep interest rates low; by acting to stimulate the supply of money and credit to ensure that those low interest rates are passed on to families and businesses; by matching our determination on the deficit with an active enterprise policy for business and lasting investment in our infrastructure and education so that Britain can pay its way in the future; and at every opportunity by helping families with the cost of living. The central forecast that we publish today from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility does not predict a recession here in Britain, but it has unsurprisingly revised down its short-term growth prospects for our country, for Europe and for the world. It expects gross domestic product in Britain to grow this year by 0.9% and by 0.7% next year. It then forecasts 2.1% growth in 2013; 2.7% in 2014; followed by 3% in 2015 and 3% again in 2016. The OBR is clear that this central forecast assumes that"““the euro area finds a way through the current crisis and that policymakers eventually find a solution that delivers sovereign debt sustainability””." If they do not, the OBR warns that there could be a ““much worse outcome”” for Britain. I believe that it is right. We hope that this can be averted, but if the rest of Europe heads into recession, it may prove hard to avoid one here in the UK. We are now undertaking extensive contingency planning to deal with all potential outcomes of the euro crisis. Like the Bank of England and the OECD yesterday, the OBR cites the chilling effect of the current instability as one of the central reasons for the reduction in its growth forecast. I want to thank Robert Chote and his fellow committee members, Stephen Nickell and Graham Parker, and their team for the rigorous work that they have done. Their forecast today demonstrates beyond any doubt their independence, but—[Interruption.] This is an important point for the House. If we accept their numbers, we must also pay heed to their analysis. In addition to the eurozone crisis, the OBR gives two further reasons for the weaker forecasts. The first is what it calls the ““external inflation shock””—the result, in its words, of"““unexpected rises in energy prices and global agricultural commodity prices””." The OBR's analysis—independent—is that this explains the slow-down in growth in Britain over the past 18 months. Secondly, the independent OBR—[Interruption.]