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Finance (No. 4) Bill

After that version of what the Budget holds, it is worth quoting another, as today's editorial in The Times was not nearly as enthusiastic as the hon. Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg). In its words:"““When the Budget speech is still leading the news three weeks after delivery, something has gone awry.””" It is rather strange, because in the beginning people thought that so much had been spun out to the press in advance that there could not be much controversy left. It all seemed to have been massaged and put out in advance, so people would not be too surprised. Three weeks after the Budget, however, as The Times says, something has gone awry. Clearly, that view is not shared by the hon. Gentleman who has just spoken, but it is widely held throughout this country. Behind all the jokes about pasties, granny tax, stamp duty and caravans, the biggest thing that has gone awry is the fact that there is very little in this Budget to help grow the economy. That is the serious part of all this. This morning—I think it must have been on the ““Today”” programme—I heard the commentator say that the Government have handed over the responsibility for economic recovery to business. The problem is that the OBR does not expect business to step up to the plate any time soon, so it appears that nobody will be responsible for the recovery. This is what the OBR had to say in its March report:"““Relative to our November EFO””" report,"““we have made a further downward revision to business investment, as we believe that non-financial companies' balance sheets may be weaker than official statistics suggest. Set against this, we expect a boost to the level of business investment of 1 per cent from the corporation tax rate cut announced in the Budget.””" The reduction in the forecast for business investment for 2012-13 is 6.9% off the November forecast and the increase that is expected this year in business investment is only 0.7%, so it appears that business will not be stepping up to the plate. We have heard a lot about corporation tax and Opposition Members have been accused of not being interested in that, but when one looks at the detail, one sees that the corporation tax cut that people have made so much of is expected to lead to an increase of only 1% in business investment over the whole forecast period. If a reduction in corporation tax is so important to the Government, it seems a rather modest step. In striving above all to create what he feels is a fiscally neutral Budget the Chancellor is constraining his Government's apparent remedies to our economic situation. We have seen the same thing with the national loan guarantee scheme and the credit easing we were promised in November which was finally announced to be alive and kicking the day before the Budget. That is really an acknowledgement that previous measures to encourage business to invest have not worked. What does the OBR say? It says:"““Under current funding market conditions, the Government guarantee on the first tranche should lead to lower funding costs and some additional net lending. The scale of the initial tranche is not large enough to have a material impact on our aggregate business investment forecast””." It goes on to say that the"““benefits associated with further tranches are less certain.””" Again, one of the tools that the Government say they have to aid economic recovery appears to be exceptionally modest, so it is not surprising that the OBR does not expect a recovery in growth to the historical average before 2014. The rise of the tax threshold is something that the Liberal Democrats are very proud of. They waved their Order Papers frantically at the time of the Budget.