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Kelly, Ruth (6)
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To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the change in population arising from changes in (a) net indigenous population and (b) net immigration in each decade to 2050, broken down by region. - Inc table and text of letter from Len Cook of the...
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate he has made of the change in population arising from changes in (a) net indigenous population and (b) net immigration in each decade to 2050, broken down by region. - Inc table and text of letter from Len Cook of the...
Asked by
John Hayes
(Conservative)
Answered by
Ruth Kelly
(Labour)
Answering body
Treasury
Type
Written questions
Status
Answered
Tabled on
22 July 2004
For answer on
7 September 2004
Answered on
7 September 2004
Mr. Hayes: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what estimate he has made of the change in population arising from changes in
(a) net indigenous population and (b) net immigration in each decade to 2050, broken down by region. [187335]
Ruth Kelly: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.
Letter from Len Cook to Mr. John Hayes, dated 7 September 2004:
As National Statistician I have been asked to reply to your question concerning the change in population arising from changes in net
indigenous population and immigration in the decades to 2050, by region. (187335)
The attached table shows population projections at Government Office Region level for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020. These figures
are 1996-based and are the latest basis on which long-term subnational population projections are currently available. These
projections have a 25 year "horizon" and so only figures to 2020 are available at this geographical level.
The projected natural population change (number of births less number of deaths) and the assumed level of net international
migration, for each region, are also shown in the table. It should be noted that these two components are not independent, and that
the level of natural change projected for the future is itself partly dependent on the assumed level of net migration.
The figures shown in the table for England are not the latest 2002-based projections produced by GAD but are 1996-based to be
consistent with the subnational projections shown. Please note that these include a lower assumption for international migration
than the latest set which can be found at: http://www.gad.gov.uk/ Population/index.asp
A note considering the overall impact of assumed net migration on future population growth is available from the Government
Actuary's Department website at: http://www. gad.gov.uk/ Population/2002/methodology/mignote.htm. This is a UK level analysis from
GAD's latest (2002-based) national projections. Comparable analysis is not available for the 1996-based projections.
The Office for National Statistics will publish 2003-based subnational population projections on 16 November. Information
about this release can be found at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme population/ Subnational/Projections-22July2004.pdf
Projected Population by Government Office Region for Decades--Total population for Government Office Regions as shown, 2000, 2010,
2020
Thousand
_________________________________________________________________________________________________.
Year
Area Population 2000 2010 2020
England Total population 49,730.2 51,031.6 52,361.2
(10-year change) 1,301.5 1,329.6
Net natural change 640.8 669.0
Net international 658.6 658.6
migration
North East Total population 2,584.0 2,539.4 2,511.8
(10-year change) -44.7 -27.6
Net natural change -18.7 -16.5
Net international 10.9 10.9
migration
North West Total population 6,875.4 6,823.7 6,809.4
(10-year change) -51.7 -14.3
Net natural change 25.5 36.5
Net international -5.3 -5.3
migration
Yorkshire and Total population 5,065.2 5,122.9 5,193.5
the Humber (10-year change) 57.7 70.6
Net natural change 43.1 56.1
Net international 34.3 34.3
migration
East Midlands Total population 4,217.0 4,369.4 4,510.4
(10-year change) 152.4 141.0
Net natural change 25.2 20.2
Net international 41.7 41.7
migration
West Midlands Total population 5,338.5 5,369.2 5,407.5
(10-year change) 30.7 38.3
Net natural change 53.3 47.5
Net international 42.4 42.4
migration
East Total population 5,418.8 5,678.4 5,918.1
(10-year change) 259.6 239.8
Net natural change 63.2 44.5
Net international 58.2 58.2
migration
London Total population 7,191.6 7,442.6 7,712.3
(10-year change) 251.0 269.7
Net natural change 422.8 480.8
Net international 310.0 310.0
migration
South East Total population 8,088.6 8,496.5 8,869.5
(10-year change) 407.9 373.0
Net natural change 81.8 67.2
Net international 113.5 113.5
migration
South West Total population 4,951.0 5,189.6 5,428.7
(10-year change) 238.6 239.1
Net natural change -55.4 -67.3
Net international 53.0 53.0
migration
_________________________________________________________________________________________________.
Source: Office for National Statistics
Subjects
Immigration; Forecasts; Population; Migration
Date
7 September 2004
Reference
424 c1199-201W;424 c1208-9W; 187335
House
House of Commons
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will list (a) total inflow to the UK, (b) total outflow from the UK and (c) new inflow into the UK in each year since 1979. - Inc table and text of letter from Len Cook of the Office for National...
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will list (a) total inflow to the UK, (b) total outflow from the UK and (c) new inflow into the UK in each year since 1979. - Inc table and text of letter from Len Cook of the Office for National...
Asked by
Alan Duncan
(Conservative)
Answered by
Ruth Kelly
(Labour)
Answering body
Treasury
Type
Written questions
Status
Answered
Tabled on
26 May 2004
For answer on
8 June 2004
Answered on
8 June 2004
Mr. Alan Duncan: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list (a) total inflow to the UK, (b) total outflow
from the UK and (c) new inflow into the UK in each year since 1979. [177095]
Ruth Kelly: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.
Letter from Len Cook to Mr. Alan Duncan, dated 8 June 2004:
As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your question regarding estimates of international migration to and from the
United Kingdom, plus net migration, since 1979. (177095)
These estimates are shown in the attached table.
International migration, time series 1979 to 2002, United Kingdom
Thousand
_________________________________________________________________________________________________.
Inflow Outflow Balance
1979 194.8 188.5 6.2
1980 173.4 228.4 -55.0
1981 152.8 232.3 -79.5
1982 201.0 257.3 -56.2
1983 201.6 184.2 17.4
1984 200.9 163.5 37.4
1985 232.1 173.7 58.4
1986 250.3 213.1 37.2
1987 211.4 209.1 2.2
1988 216.0 237.2 -21.3
1989 249.8 205.4 44.3
1990 266.8 230.8 36.0
1991 328.4 285.0 43.5
1992 267.6 281.1 -13.5
1993 265.1 266.3 -1.2
1994 314.4 237.6 76.8
1995 311.9 236.5 75.4
1996 317.8 263.7 54.1
1997 326.1 279.2 46.8
1998 390.3 251.5 138.8
1999 453.8 290.8 163.0
2000 483.4 320.7 162.8
2001 479.6 307.7 171.8
2002 512.8 359.4 153.4
_________________________________________________________________________________________________.
Notes: 1. Data tor 1979-90 are based on the international Passenger Survey (IPS) only. Data for 1991-2002 are based mainly on data
from the IPS but also include adjustments for (1) those whose intended length of stay changes so that their migrant status changes;
(2) asylum seekers and their dependants not covered by the IPS; and (3) flows between the UK and the Republic of Ireland. This means
that figures for years from 1991 onwards include all categories of migrants and therefore represent total international migration,
while figures for years Drier to 1991 exclude certain categories. 2. The estimates for years from 1991 onwards are compiled using
the following main sources of migration data in addition to the IPS: Home Office data on asylum seekers and their dependants, and
people who entered the UK as short-term visitors but were subsequently granted an extension of stay for a year or longer for other
reasons, for example, as students or on the basis of marriage; and estimates of migration between the UK and the Irish Republic.
Subjects
Immigration; Migration; Emigration
Date
8 June 2004
Reference
177095; 422 c373-4W
House
House of Commons
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will list the net non-EU migration to the UK in each year since 1979. - Inc table and text of letter from Len Cook of the Office for National Statistics.
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will list the net non-EU migration to the UK in each year since 1979. - Inc table and text of letter from Len Cook of the Office for National Statistics.
Asked by
Alan Duncan
(Conservative)
Answered by
Ruth Kelly
(Labour)
Answering body
Treasury
Type
Written questions
Status
Answered
Tabled on
26 May 2004
For answer on
8 June 2004
Answered on
8 June 2004
Mr. Alan Duncan: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list the net non-EU migration to the UK in each year since 1979.
[177089]
Ruth Kelly: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.
Letter from Len Cook to Mr. Alan Duncan, dated 8 June 2004:
As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your question regarding estimates of net non-European Union migration to the
United Kingdom since 1979. (177089)
These estimates are shown in the attached table. The phrase "non-European Union migration" has been interpreted as referring to the
citizenship of migrants as opposed to, for example, their country of birth or country of last residence.
Please note that the definition for the European Union does not include the ten states that joined on 1 May 2004, nor does it
include the non--EU states in the European Economic Area. The countries included are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
International migration of people who are not citizens of EU countries, time series 1979 to 2002, United Kingdom
Thousand
_________________________________________________________________________________________________.
Inflow Outflow Balance
1979 98.7 49.5 49.2
1980 88.9 57.2 31.7
1981 81.0 53.0 28.0
1982 85.8 59.8 25.9
1983 92.3 50.5 41.7
1984 86.1 51.3 34.8
1985 98.4 52.5 45.9
1986 94.2 68.2 26.0
1987 87.8 58.0 29.8
1988 99.3 70.3 28.9
1989 114.2 61.2 53.0
1990 123.7 65.2 58.6
1991 166.5 77.5 89.0
1992 131.4 87.6 43.9
1993 135.0 77.3 57.7
1994 155.8 70.9 84.9
1995 166.8 63.0 103.8
1996 151.7 64.0 87.7
1997 165.6 77.4 88.2
1998 205.4 76.9 128.6
1999 270.8 93.0 177.8
2000 316.2 102.6 213.6
2001 312.9 99.4 213.5
2002 355.4 122.0 233.4
_________________________________________________________________________________________________.
Notes: 1. Data for 1979-90 are based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) only. Data for 1991-2002 are based mainly on data
from the IPS but also include adjustments for (1) those whose intended length of stay changes so that their migrant status changes;
(2) asylum seekers and their dependants not covered by the IPS; and (3) flows between the UK and the Republic of Ireland. This means
that figures for years from 1991 onwards include all categories of migrants and therefore represent total international migration,
while figures for years prior to 1991 exclude certain categories of migration. 2. The estimates for years from 1991 onwards are
compiled using the following main sources of migration data in addition to the IPS: Home Office data on asylum seekers and their
dependants, and people who entered the UK as short-term visitors but were subsequently granted an extension of stay for a year or
longer for other reasons, for example, as students or on the basis of marriage; and estimates of migration between the UK and the
Irish Republic.
Subjects
Immigration; Migrants; Migration
Date
8 June 2004
Reference
177089; 422 c375-6W
House
House of Commons
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what proportion of the population increase expected under the principal projection issued by the Office of National Statistics on 18th December 2003 is due to the assumed level of net inward migration and the descendants of migrants. - A note considering the impact...
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what proportion of the population increase expected under the principal projection issued by the Office of National Statistics on 18th December 2003 is due to the assumed level of net inward migration and the descendants of migrants. - A note considering the impact...
Asked by
Lord Lilley
(Conservative)
Answered by
Ruth Kelly
(Labour)
Answering body
Treasury
Type
Written questions
Status
Answered
Tabled on
8 March 2004
For answer on
29 March 2004
Answered on
29 March 2004
Mr. Lilley: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what proportion of the population increase expected under the principal
projection issued by the Office for National Statistics on 18 December 2003 is due to the assumed level of net inward
migration and the descendants of migrants. [160514]
Ruth Kelly :[holding answer 11 March 2004]: A note considering the impact of assumed net migration on projected population
growth is now available on the GAD website at http://www.gad.gov.uk/Population/ 2002/methodology/mignote.htm
Subjects
Increases; Population; Migration
Date
29 March 2004
Reference
419 c1232W;419 c1234W; 160514
House
House of Commons
Written Statement on the publication of the 2001 Census National Report (part 2) for England and Wales. (Inc fact that copies in the Library - UP 1 2003/04).
Written Statement on the publication of the 2001 Census National Report (part 2) for England and Wales. (Inc fact that copies in the Library - UP 1 2003/04).
Member
Ruth Kelly
(Labour)
Department
Treasury
Type
Written statements
Subjects
Armed forces; Census; Homosexuality; Staff; Population; Migration; Statistics; Population studies
Date
3 February 2004
Reference
417 c32WS
House
House of Commons
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will make a statement on progress in establishing an appropriate method for measuring net migration into the UK. - Inc text of letter from Len Cook of the Office for National Statistics.
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will make a statement on progress in establishing an appropriate method for measuring net migration into the UK. - Inc text of letter from Len Cook of the Office for National Statistics.
Asked by
Claire Curtis-Thomas
(Labour)
Answered by
Ruth Kelly
(Labour)
Answering body
Treasury
Type
Written questions
Status
Answered
Tabled on
20 January 2004
For answer on
26 January 2004
Answered on
26 January 2004
Mrs. Curtis-Thomas: To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make a statement on progress in establishing an appropriate
method for measuring net migration into the UK. [150333]
Ruth Kelly: The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.
Letter from Len Cook to Mrs. Claire Curtis-Thomas, dated 26 January 2004:
As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your request for a statement on progress in establishing an appropriate
method for measuring net migration into the UK. (150333)
A substantial amount of work in this area has already been completed, and a program of further work is ongoing.
The results of the 2001 Census showed that the mid-year population estimates had over-estimated the population of the UK over the
previous decade. Subsequent research showed that this was partly because net migration into the country had been over-estimated. The
Office for National Statistics (ONS) made several improvements to the methodology for estimating total international migration,
making fuller use of the available sources. The improved methodology was used to produce the international migration estimates for
2001, and was also applied retrospectively from 1992 onwards in order to produce revised total international migration estimates for
the inter-censual decade. ONS released final revised international migration estimates for 1992-2001 in June 2003. The revised
methodology was used again to produce the 2002 international migration estimates published in November 2003, which are available on
the National Statistics website at the following address: http:// www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/inme1103.pdf
It was already recognised that international migration is the hardest component of population change to measure before the results
of the 2001 Census were published. A National Statistics Quality Review of international migration statistics was initiated in March
2002. This was aimed at identifying the means of making the required improvements to the reliability and comprehensiveness of
international migration statistics. The National Statistics Quality Review report was published on the National Statistics website
in September 2003. Following the publication of this report, ONS produced an implementation plan for taking forward the review's
recommendations. This was published on the National Statistics website in January 2004. Both the review and the implementation plan
are available at the following address: http://www.statistlcs.gov.uk/methods quality/ quality review/population.asp
The work outlined in the implementation plan is already underway. ONS, in conjunction with the Home Office are working to complete
some of the actions identified by the end of 2004. Other actions are suitable for longer term planning, and in some cases are
dependent on developments in other government departments for their successful completion.
Subjects
Immigration; Monitoring; Population; Migration; Statistics; Standards
Date
26 January 2004
Reference
417 c113-4W; 150333
House
House of Commons