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To ask His Majesty's Government what plans they have to review the assessment criteria used to forecast the results of investment in railway infrastructure.
To ask His Majesty's Government what plans they have to review the assessment criteria used to forecast the results of investment in railway infrastructure.
The Department has a long-standing and established appraisal framework within Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG), which is aligned with HM Treasury Green Book on conducting welfare-based cost-benefit analysis to support a business case. Whilst this framework does not provide specific assessment criteria, it does provide general guidance on forecasting, estimating and assessing the costs and benefits of transport interventions, including railway infrastructure enhancements.
The Department continuously reviews its appraisal framework, through the TAG orderly release process, to improve the robustness of guidance provided and to reflect new research, trends and evaluation evidence. This typically involves a twice-yearly update to guidance, during Spring and Autumn.
Regarding railway infrastructure investment, the Department are actively considering research carried out by the Institute for Transport Studies, on behalf of the Rail Safety and Standards Board, and plan to bring forward improvements to associated guidance in the future.
Her Majesty's Government whether current forecasts for rail freight potential take account of the need to reduce heavy lorry mileage by 2050.
Her Majesty's Government whether current forecasts for rail freight potential take account of the need to reduce heavy lorry mileage by 2050.
The rail freight forecasts do not explicitly consider the need to reduce heavy lorry mileage.
To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the Written Answer by Earl Attlee on 30 October (WA 128), what assessment they have made of the accuracy of the forecasts made using the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook over the past 10 years. [HL3186]
To ask Her Majesty’s Government, further to the Written Answer by Earl Attlee on 30 October (WA 128), what assessment they have made of the accuracy of the forecasts made using the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook over the past 10 years. [HL3186]
The Department for Transport’s approach to passenger rail demand forecasting is set out in its guidance WebTAG. This is largely based around the contents of the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH), but does not adopt into its guidance the entirety of new versions of PDFH as they are released. The department has not, therefore, assessed the accuracy of forecasts based on particular versions of PDFH.
The department does monitor the performance of its own passenger demand forecasting guidance by carrying out back-casting exercises. A recent exercise compared forecast rail revenue with actual revenue over the period 1995-96 to 2009-10. These results
show that the department’s approach tended to overforecast revenue during the first half of the last decade and to underforecast during the second half. Overall, no evidence was found of systematic under- or overforecasting revenue in the long term.
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what are the costs of (1) compiling the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook and (2) the Rail Statistics Management Group; what assessment they have made of the value for money provided by each of them; and what assessment they have made of the benefit to passengers...
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what are the costs of (1) compiling the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook and (2) the Rail Statistics Management Group; what assessment they have made of the value for money provided by each of them; and what assessment they have made of the benefit to passengers...
The Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) is owned by the Passenger Demand Forecasting Council (PDFC), which sits within ATOC, and of which the Department for Transport is a member. Members of PDFC pay an annual subscription. One of the benefits of membership is access to the PDFH, others being commissioning and receiving the results of PDFC-funded research projects. The PDFH contains the results of a wide range of research which comes from various sources.
Given these sources, and the set of benefits that membership of PDFC gives its members, it is not possible to identify the specific cost of compiling the PDFH, nor therefore to assess the value for money of the PDFH.
The PDFH allows scheme members to forecast the level and pattern of future passenger demand, and to plan rail investment accordingly.
The Rail Statistics Management Group (RSMG) is led by the Office of Rail Regulation (ORR) and meets two or three times each year. It is usually attended by two or three officials from the Department for Transport. In addition to the staff costs of attendance, there are minimal administrative costs associated with attendance at these meetings.
ORR leads on the publication of statistics for the rail industry and is committed to making more information available to rail passengers and the wider public. The RSMG is made up of lead statisticians or data specialists who have responsibility for the production and use of rail data in their respective organisations, and the group deals with the improvement of rail statistics. Further detailed information can be obtained from the ORR.
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what current and future prices per barrel of oil were used to calculate the figures in the Carbon Plan published on 8 March 2011.
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what current and future prices per barrel of oil were used to calculate the figures in the Carbon Plan published on 8 March 2011.
| Scenario 2—Timely Investment, Moderate Demand | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 prices | Oil-Brent | Gas-NBP | Coal-ARA |
| Year | $/barrel | p/therm | $/tonne |
| 2008 | 102 | 58 | 147 |
| 2010 | 70 | 58 | 110 |
| 2015 | 75 | 63 | 80 |
| 2020 | 80 | 67 | 80 |
| 2025 | 85 | 71 | 80 |
| 2030 | 90 | 74 | 80 |
Further to the Written Answer by Lord Bach on 24 April (WA 314), what is the likely price of oil to be used in the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform's next update on future trends of oil, gas and coal prices.
Further to the Written Answer by Lord Bach on 24 April (WA 314), what is the likely price of oil to be used in the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform's next update on future trends of oil, gas and coal prices.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Further to the Written Answer by Lord Bach on 24 April (WA 314), whether the internal modelling of future oil prices carried out by the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform feeds into investment projects being considered by other government departments; and
asked Her Majesty's Government:Further to the Written Answer by Lord Bach on 24 April (WA 314), whether the internal modelling of future oil prices carried out by the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform feeds into investment projects being considered by other government departments; and
asked Her Majesty's Government:What plans they have to adjust their estimates of future energy prices.
asked Her Majesty's Government:What plans they have to adjust their estimates of future energy prices.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether an increase in the forecast price for oil between now and 2030 strengthens the economic case for further electrification of the railway system and the purchase of electric trains.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether an increase in the forecast price for oil between now and 2030 strengthens the economic case for further electrification of the railway system and the purchase of electric trains.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether their forecasts relating to oil prices falling from $65 per barrel in 2006 to $53 per barrel by 2030 remain valid in the light of recent concerns about long-term oil supplies.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether their forecasts relating to oil prices falling from $65 per barrel in 2006 to $53 per barrel by 2030 remain valid in the light of recent concerns about long-term oil supplies.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether an increase in the forecast price for oil between now and 2030 strengthens the economic case for the use of light rapid transit systems.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether an increase in the forecast price for oil between now and 2030 strengthens the economic case for the use of light rapid transit systems.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether they assume oil prices will fall to $53 per barrel by 2030 in their transport strategy forward planning and modelling.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Whether they assume oil prices will fall to $53 per barrel by 2030 in their transport strategy forward planning and modelling.
asked Her Majesty's Government:Further to the Written Answer by Lord Davies of Oldham on 7 November (WA 144), why, bearing in mind that passenger numbers are increasing at7 per cent per annum, their forecasted increase for the use of trains in the north-west region in the period between 2002–03 and...
asked Her Majesty's Government:Further to the Written Answer by Lord Davies of Oldham on 7 November (WA 144), why, bearing in mind that passenger numbers are increasing at7 per cent per annum, their forecasted increase for the use of trains in the north-west region in the period between 2002–03 and...
Why the north-west regional planning assessment for the railways concludes, as its central case, that rail journeys within the region will increase by 12.3 per cent between 2002-03 and 2031-32.
Why the north-west regional planning assessment for the railways concludes, as its central case, that rail journeys within the region will increase by 12.3 per cent between 2002-03 and 2031-32.
Further to the Written Answer by the Lord Davies of Oldham on 3 February 2004, 657 c100-1WA, what is the base year against which the 15-25 per cent increase in passenger journeys between London and Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow has been measured in the Strategic Rail Authority's West Coast...
Further to the Written Answer by the Lord Davies of Oldham on 3 February 2004, 657 c100-1WA, what is the base year against which the 15-25 per cent increase in passenger journeys between London and Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow has been measured in the Strategic Rail Authority's West Coast...
Whether they will set out their latest forecasts for passenger growth on the West Coast Main Line following completion of the present upgrade. - Inc figures. [HL 985].
Whether they will set out their latest forecasts for passenger growth on the West Coast Main Line following completion of the present upgrade. - Inc figures. [HL 985].