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Armed Forces: Nuclear Deterrent

My Lords, it is a great privilege to follow the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall. I do so with some trepidation. His extensive military service and experience certainly puts my few years in the Territorial Army into perspective. My noble friend Lord O’Neill pointed out that our Labour Government were elected on a manifesto to renew and retain our independent deterrent. We would certainly be criticised extensively if we did not fulfil our manifesto commitments. The Labour Party, of which some Liberal Democrats used to be members, has been committed for almost all its existence to an independent deterrent. I say to my noble friend Lord Judd and to my noble and learned friend Lord Archer of Sandwell, for both of whom I have great respect, that we need to bear that point in mind. Notwithstanding that commitment in the manifesto, as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Manchester so generously said, this Government are involved in the widest possible consultation. Indeed, it is unprecedented consultation. First, the Government reviewed all of the options that have been discussed today. Then having reviewed them, they put forward this White Paper as a basis for consultation, for public debate as well as parliamentary debate. We are having this debate here, there will be one in the Commons, and the Commons will be voting on this issue. I say to those who criticise the Prime Minister—I say this particularly to the Liberal Democrat Front Bench who cannot resist a pop at the Prime Minister; there seems to be some obsession—that he needs to be given some credit for the consultation process. We had a Commons vote on Iraq as well. I feel very strongly that in this decision, as with global warming, we need to think in the very long term rather than the short term, in decades rather than years. Our generation—and we are mostly of the same generation—has enjoyed the advantages of the protection of the independent deterrent. We have seen peace in Europe in almost all of my lifetime. As for the timescale of the decision, I think everyone has accepted that, with perhaps the question of a year or two here or there, it will take a long time for these decisions to be implemented and most of us agree they have to be taken now. If we do not take the decision on submarines, we are in danger of depriving our children and our grandchildren of the kind of protection that we have enjoyed. They may face circumstances that we cannot foresee in which other powers threaten this country. I ask noble Lords to bear that in mind. We have had the protection and we should not deprive our children and our grandchildren of it. The Liberal Democrats argue that we should delay the decision. I shall not describe this as the usual fence sitting by the Liberal Democrats. The White Paper makes a powerful case that a clear decision has to be made. In all conscience, it is a difficult decision—my noble friend Lord O'Neill argues that it is a popular one—and it may even be unpopular. Do Governments voluntarily bring forward difficult decisions—decisions that may not be the most popular—and suggest that it is merely part of the Prime Minister's legacy? Again, that is the Liberal Democrats indulging in their obsession. Some argue, as has been argued today, that nuclear weapons are immoral. No weapon is moral or immoral in itself. It depends on the motivation for possessing such a weapon and the uses to which it is or may be put. That applies to every weapon. If peace can best be maintained by the possession of and the threat to use a weapon, surely that is a positive argument in its favour. The choice in this case, as in many cases, is between the lesser of two evils. Some argue that as the Cold War is over, this deterrent is not needed because the threats now come from rogue states or from terrorists. The noble Lord, Lord Howell, and the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, argued that. To deal with that, the Government are improving and extending our counterinsurgency forces and we are strengthening our security and intelligence services. So we are dealing separately with that threat, but the nuclear capability is designed to meet other potential threats, just as tanks, aircraft carriers and our other capabilities have other purposes as well. We face a threat from nuclear or near-nuclear states at the moment and from others that may acquire nuclear weapons in the next few decades. We need to be prepared for that. Perhaps we need an insurance policy—sometimes insurance policies are wise things to have. Some argue, notably the Scottish National Party, that we should be non-nuclear, like Sweden or Norway. Those illustrations are used again and again. That is a naive comparison because we have a totally different history and background from the Scandinavian countries and from other countries. Whether we like it or not, there is a current enmity towards the United Kingdom from some of the nearby nuclear regimes because Britain has stood side-by-side with United States on the international stage. We must accept, therefore, that we are more vulnerable to attack. It is said by some—the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, said it today—that the plan goes against the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. The Minister dealt with that in relation to the reduction in warheads by 20 per cent, having reduced them already by 30 per cent—a total of 50 per cent—and the reduction of the number of submarines. That commitment to nuclear non-proliferation should be acknowledged. Unilateralists also argue—this point was made by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall, acting as the devil's advocate although, at times, he almost sounded like the devil himself—that if we make this bold move of nuclear disarmament, others will follow. Where is the evidence to support that? Who will follow? I ask those who argue that to name any country that will follow our bold example. I doubt that any will be forthcoming. It is also suggested that possession is illegal, but there are no rulings of the International Court of Justice. The South Americans took the question to the ICJ, but there was no ruling about the illegality of possession of these weapons. Strangely enough, the only legal ruling was in the High Court of Justiciary in Scotland where the Faslane protestors took the issue. There was a clear ruling that the possession of such weapons was not illegal.