---

Armed Forces: Nuclear Deterrent

My Lords, I begin by declaring an interest. I am privileged to be the president of the World Disarmament Campaign; and I should tell my noble friends Lord Foulkes and Lord O’Neill that there are an awful lot of very worried people out there, even if they do not always succeed in making their voices heard. We may begin with a premise on which we can all agree: we want to make this country as secure as possible in a dangerous world. The issue is how that can best be done. The noble Baroness, Lady Miller, has just reminded us that threats come in a range of different forms, so we should not take too narrow a view of what threatens the security of this country. Even if we take the narrow view, the question is bound to arise of what contribution Trident can make in response to threats. In their response to the report of the House of Commons Defence Committee, the Government said: "““We do not see Trident as a weapon system for fighting wars, but as having a fundamentally political role in deterring aggression””." A deterrent can deter only if there is a possible situation and manner in which someone might contemplate using it. As the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, quite properly reminded us, we are considering a devastating weapon. My noble friend Lord Drayson told us that it was intended only for strategic purposes; I hope that my noble friend Lord Triesman can elaborate on that when he concludes. I realise that we want to keep potential enemies guessing, but surely the whole purpose of this debate is to inform us what is proposed, so that we may pass some kind of judgment on it. Would it be used only to counter a nuclear attack, or could it be used against conventional forces? Might it be used against enemy forces, to counter a political invasion of this country? In a contemporary form of warfare, are we likely to see enemy forces conveniently deployed in an open battlefield? Even leaving aside the question of fallout, would we explode our warheads among the tower blocks of Bermondsey or the housing estates of Basildon? Contemporary wars, as nearly everyone now agrees, are fought among civilian populations in narrow streets or public squares. If the proposed use is for retaliatory purposes, are we proposing to use them against other people’s crowded cities? Do we envisage another, bigger Hiroshima? I hope that no other country would believe us capable of that, but if they do not, how and where is the possible deterrent effect? A credible deterrent would, surely, need to be more proportionate and user-friendly. That brings us to the next question. It is difficult to consider what our response to an anticipated threat should be without having some idea of its nature and whence it may come. The White Paper considers that there is, at present, no identifiable threat. It says, in paragraph 3.8: "““Currently no state has both the intent to threaten our vital interests and the capability to do so with nuclear weapons””." The Government’s case, as I understand it, can be encapsulated in the slogan ““You never know””, which has been given as a reason for everything from galoshes to elephant guns. The Defence Committee considered that the most pressing threat faced by the UK is international terrorism, to which a number of noble Lords referred. To my knowledge, no one has sought to argue that nuclear weapons could be used against terrorists, or in any event that they would be deterred by the possibility of such use. If it is suggested that they might be used against rogue states, should a rogue state that encourages terrorists be visited with nuclear warheads? If that is so, perhaps my noble friend Lord Triesman could make it clear. The problem with preparing to meet a threat that cannot be assessed is that what the Government propose may create the very situation that they fear. It would not be the first time that a country created defences against a real or imagined threat and other countries, with absolutely no previous aggressive intention, perceived the defences as a threat to themselves and responded by creating their own defences. We then have a vicious cycle: of defence perceived as a threat, leading to defence perceived as a threat, leading to defence—the classic paradigm of an arms race. I return to the initial premise. The Government are concerned to safeguard the security of this country; so are we all. The question then arises of how that can best be done. An answer that many people give is that Britain would be most secure in a world where nuclear weapons do not proliferate, a world where the objectives of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty are realised, as the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, has pointed out. They would say that anything undermining the treaty is counterproductive and leaves us not safer but in greater danger. That raises the question: if the Government believe that nuclear weapons are essential to our security, how can we convince the non-nuclear states that they are not essential to theirs? The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall, who is not in his place, raised that question. The White Paper addresses that question in box 3.1: "““The NPT recognised the UK””," and certain other states, "““as nuclear weapon States, and established other signatories as non-nuclear weapon States””." There are two criticisms of that. First, it does not answer the question. If nuclear weapons are essential to the security of the United Kingdom, are the non-nuclear states to be left devoid of security? To point out that they have no right to be secure will hardly persuade them. Secondly, that answer rests on a false premise. The White Paper points out, quite correctly, that Article VI of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty does not establish a timetable for nuclear or general disarmament. It does not, but it froze the situation as it was in 1968, creating two classes of state: those that had manufactured or exploded a nuclear weapon or device prior to 1 January 1967—the nuclear weapons states—and those that had not. That was the best that could be managed then, because those that had weapons could not be persuaded to discard them. No one believed that all the other states would accept second-class status until the end of time. They agreed to those terms because, under Article VI, the nuclear weapons states agreed to negotiate in good faith for two things: first, nuclear disarmament, and, secondly, ““general and complete disarmament””. The treaty was envisaged as an interim measure until nuclear and general disarmament could be achieved. The suggestion that the non-nuclear states were prepared to accept second-class status for eternity would have been an idea from cloud-cuckoo-land.