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Armed Forces: Nuclear Deterrent

My Lords, I welcome the opportunity to debate this vital issue and I thank the Minister for his comprehensive introduction. I declare two interests. I am a member of the Armed Forces pay review board, speaking in this debate in a personal capacity. My long-term interest started in the 1960s, when—I suspect like many others—I totally opposed nuclear weapons as a CND supporter. I went on the marches, but never kept the t-shirts. In an ideal world I would have maintained that stance. Along with many others I recognised that to achieve the return of a Labour Government, we had to demonstrate our commitment to national security. One might call that pragmatism; I would not dispute it. Nevertheless, over a period of time I came to believe that the unilateral approach was not the right one, and that the multilateral approach was the way forward. As has been said by others in this debate, one cannot help but feel that the energy and resources that go into producing weapons of war could and should be put to better uses, such as combating poverty, disease or climate change, as suggested by the noble Baroness, Lady Tonge. Regrettably, we do not live in an ideal world, so I do not accept the unilateralist argument, put in many different ways during this fascinating debate, that it would set an example for others to follow. The activities of Iran, North Korea and China demonstrate the fallacy of this argument. Like many others, I welcome the reduction in warheads and the single platform. It should, in theory, help to reduce costs, and it acknowledges our commitment to the non-proliferation treaty. There is a real concern that the £15 billion to £20 billion cost estimate may be exceeded, as the noble Baroness, Lady Symons, so eloquently put it. We cannot ignore public concern over our covenant with the Armed Forces. I hope the Minister can echo the Prime Minister in giving an absolute assurance that this expenditure will not have an impact upon our ability to suitably equip and reward our Armed Forces against a backdrop of the Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review. The noble Baroness, Lady Miller, believes that we can focus only on the problems of climate change. I do not deny its importance, but we cannot do that—and the nation would not thank us for doing so—at the expense of national security. I could not help but welcome the thoughtful analysis of the noble Lord, Lord Roper, and I share his view and that of the noble Lord, Lord Hannay—who, unfortunately, is not in the Chamber at the moment—about the six points. I hope the Minister will take them into account during his reply. The points he made about steps to revitalise the non-proliferation treaty are well worth consideration. My noble friend Lady Kennedy of The Shaws said that we prepared for war and what we got was war. I reflected on that, thinking that perhaps Winston Churchill’s view at the time was that we did not prepare for war and what we nearly got was probably one of the worst defeats that we could ever have suffered, so I did not quite understand the consistency of her point. She went on to say that the public had been taken by surprise. The Labour Government could be criticised for many things, but not for this. There was a manifesto commitment. I do not believe, as alleged by the noble Lord, Lord Wallace of Saltaire, that we have been in any way bounced into this debate. Nor do I share his view that having this debate shows a cynical approach, and that the decisions have all been taken. This is a debate of vital importance. The noble Baroness, Lady Tonge, rightly drew our attention to the horrors of Hiroshima. As someone who has visited the city and its museum, I cannot help but acknowledge that. However, I also remember thinking at the time that I was glad that I did not have to take that appalling decision against the backdrop of the appalling Japanese war atrocities. I remember reading The Knights of Bushido as a young man and wondering how people could engage in that kind of conduct. These things must always be taken in context. My noble friend Lady Kennedy said that nuclear deterrence was a nonsense concept. That is a matter of opinion. The experience of the Cold War denies that view. I accept the point of the noble Lord, Lord Judd, about the timing of this decision; the noble and right reverend Lord, Lord Harries, echoed that. Without demeaning his argument, I do not know whether the noble and right reverend Lord’s point about trust and mistrust was not a variation of the argument that if we abandon our deterrent then others will follow. I am not sure that there is any evidence to support that. I welcome the Government’s approach. It is genuine and reflects our manifesto commitment for an open and transparent debate. I hope that the Minister will carefully address the points of the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, the question of giving an absolute assurance on the impacts of cost and expenditure, and the fact that the people of this country want to be sure that the Armed Forces are equipped and rewarded in a way that meets our covenant with them.