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Zimbabwe

My Lords there have been so many false dawns in Zimbabwe. I have been a lone voice in your Lordships’ House, believing that sanity would prevail and that there would be a Government of national unity—and how wrong I have been. While the noble Earl, Lord Caithness, and others are absolutely right to ask what the South African Government have been doing to put pressure on Robert Mugabe to resolve the ever worsening crisis in his country, your Lordships should be aware that the South African Government have, behind the scenes in the past five years, negotiated no fewer than two deals which would transition the country to a Government of national unity, but on both occasions Mugabe has reneged on those deals—to a large degree, perhaps, because of the fact that Charles Taylor was indicted for war crimes and the belief that many of Mugabe’s cohorts would face a similar destiny. The South African Government are now lending support to a troika of Tanzania, Lesotho and Namibia to find a solution. Furthermore, as several noble Lords have mentioned, since the SADC meeting 10 days ago, Mbeki has been formally mandated to be the official mediator in an attempt to ensure free and fair elections in Zimbabwe next year. That of course will be a monumental task, especially as much of the defective security legislation will need to be repealed and an independent electoral commission appointed. Your Lordships should be aware that there is no love lost between Mbeki and Mugabe. Time restricts me from elaborating why the South African Government have not been more outspoken in the past. I still believe we are in the end game in Zimbabwe. With the ever worsening economic meltdown in Zimbabwe, the economy is the real opposition—and against that Mugabe has no response. I believe that the economy will determine what happens politically. I have always believed that there should be African solutions for African problems. Increasingly, African Heads of State are now, thankfully, speaking out and deriding the Zimbabwe crisis as being embarrassing for Africa. I also believe that between now and the election next year there is a strong possibility of an internal challenge within ZANU-PF against Mugabe’s leadership. In conclusion, it is not a matter of if there will be change, but when. What measures are likely to be taken by Her Majesty’s Government when that time comes to help rebuild what was once the bread-basket of Africa?