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Policing in London

May I begin by reflecting on the comments made by the hon. Member for Arundel and South Downs (Nick Herbert) about trust in statistics, because that issue lies at the heart of not only this debate, but most of those on crime and policing. I am not unsympathetic to the idea of more independent collection of statistics, but it is unarguably true—the hon. Gentleman’s comments demonstrated the fact—that, regardless of how the statistics are collected and by whom, how they are used nevertheless comes down to individuals, whether they be in the media or in politics. That is open to a great deal of varied interpretation and occasional quite blatant misinterpretation. I noticed from the statistics quoted by the hon. Member for Arundel and South Downs that the baseline year—the important issue for comparison of statistics—varied widely between 2000, which saw the introduction of the Metropolitan Police Authority and the election of the Mayor of London, and 1997, when 10 years of Labour Government commenced. In one case, the hon. Gentleman quoted figures based on 1991. Of course, that choice is very significant, because depending on which year we choose as the baseline year for studying historical trends, we find very different things in different circumstances. The figures that the MPA uses for historical perspective give us the ability to track changes in crimes over one year, three years or five years. That will provide enormously varied results, reflecting what we all know—that there are patterns of crime that go up and then, we hope, come down as we bring resources to bear on them. For example, the figures for gun crime show that London saw a 21 per cent. reduction over the five years between 2002 and 2007, falling to an 8 per cent. reduction—still significant and important—if we take the two years between 2005 and 2007. The figures for robberies, which are a matter of enormous concern, show a significant increase, as all London Members will know, reflecting a rise in street robbery between 2004-05 and 2007. I hope, however, the increase of only 1 per cent. recorded over the course of last year, which reflected the fact that the police have been targeting that particular pattern of crime, will be a sustained trend. If we want a mature and balanced debate about the resources required to tackle crime and about the factors that drive criminal behaviour, it is important to recognise that, whoever collects the statistics and however they are presented, the use of those statistics in debate must also be taken into account.