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Foreign Policy

My Lords, I join in congratulating the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford, not only, as many other noble Lords have said, on taking on the responsibility of opening this most interesting debate but on the way in which he introduced it. I take particular pleasure in the fact that I am following the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall, as will be apparent from certain remarks that I shall make in support of some of what he said. This debate refers to the new challenges in foreign policy. Of course, we see these against the background of a dangerous and destabilised world. It was already in that condition, and seriously so, before the arrival of the economic crunch, which is yet to have its impact in any significant way on many corners of the world and which I think will certainly make conditions in some countries immensely more difficult than they are even at the moment. One of the most obvious examples of a destabilised area is the Middle East. I am sure that many others will wish to comment about the situation there. With regard to Israel, I am struck that at the moment when Mr Netanyahu, who might be seen as the more extreme candidate, is about to become the leader of Israel, Mr George Mitchell is arriving as a possible negotiator or conciliator. With his experience of bringing together the extremes in Northern Ireland, perhaps there is just a glimmer of hope there, although I cannot see that it will be more than that. However, if there is no one to outflank the parties, then, if there is any sense left, there is perhaps just a possibility of recognising that at last there must be a better understanding and a chance of achieving a settlement. Certainly, it seems that the Israel/Palestine situation has been deteriorating and not improving. I wish to turn particularly to the area that the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall, talked about. He rightly paid tribute, as I wish to do, to the extraordinary courage, dedication and professionalism of our Armed Forces, and he referred to the deaths of members of the Rifles. I am a much more junior member of the regiment which he so signally graced in his time, but I recall that the regiment that I had the honour to serve, which now makes up the Rifles, had as its cap badge the battle honour ““Jellalabad 1840”” as the clearest possible reminder of the world in which we move. As the noble and learned Lord, Lord Bramall, said, people who do not know the history of Afghanistan do not deserve to play any part in determining policy hereafter. I say that against the background of what I believe to be the much more serious situation that has now emerged—that is, what many have suggested is the virtual disappearance of the Durand line. Now, there is almost no border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and people are now talking about the development of ““Paktunistan””. Into this present terrible cocktail—we know that agreement was recently reached by the Pakistan army—is added the fact that in the Pashtun and Baluch areas there is now virtually no rule of government law. Policy is directed as though we are dealing with Governments who have sovereign power over all the territories that are currently defined as their borders, but that makes the situation for our forces in Helmand much graver and more difficult. I do not wish to be too apocalyptic about it but I have heard the leaders of both Pakistan and Afghanistan described as being in a sense more like the lord mayors of their capital cities than rulers with power and responsibility over the whole of their countries. That makes the situation extremely challenging. It is against that background that the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall, referred to the ““dislike of the invader”” and foreign occupation. We know about the Russian situation. Some of us will remember or know somebody who lives on in a senior position. Bob Gates was, in an earlier incarnation, head of the CIA. In his memoir, which he published in 1996, he referred to the final departure of the Russians, saying that at last Afghanistan was free of the foreign invader. Now the new Secretary for Defence in the Obama Administration, Bob Gates has to face up to exactly the challenge that he previously recognised in the difficult position of the Russians at that time. I pick up on the point made by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall, about al-Qaeda. I wonder to what extent this is still an al-Qaeda problem, and whether al-Qaeda is, in some ways, marginalised. How will the situation develop in Helmand province and the border areas of Pakistan, where al-Qaeda is seen, in a sense, as a foreign invader? It seems to me that that is what happened in Iraq. In the end, the Iraqis decided that they did not want al-Qaeda’s presence and activities, as they had in the past. Against this background, I look to see what approaches we can make. Above all, this needs an international approach. We certainly need a co-operative approach from Russia, or we could face serious problems as to how we supply our forces in Afghanistan, in view of recent developments in Pakistan. Russia, China, Iran and India have a keen interest in the stability of the area and must undoubtedly be seriously worried about the challenges that are now developing. Against that background, I certainly welcome the constructive approach of President Obama. I hope that it will lead to constructive discussions with each of the countries concerned. I hope that there will be constructive discussions with Iran; there are areas in which we are able to have very helpful and constructive relations. I recall the number of serving members of the Iranian Army who lost their lives in trying to prevent drug traffic out of Afghanistan and Pakistan, through Iran and into Europe. China, which now faces the gravest of economic problems, has a keen interest in greater stability, and surely India cannot look with anything but the greatest apprehension at the risk of major instability in its nuclear-armed neighbour. I hope that the plea that has come from so many speakers today will be heard. As a former Secretary of State for Defence, I am well aware of the importance of ““jaw, jaw”” and the role of the Foreign Office, exactly as my noble friend Lord Hurd, with whom I had the honour and privilege of working on many occasions, said. I always saw those of us in Defence as being very much at the service of the Foreign Office, with military might and the iron fist available very much as second-best. The leadership of the Foreign Office and our effective foreign policy was much the best way forward. The tragedy is that defence has not been a powerful ally in support of an effective foreign policy. The tragedy of recent years is that events in Iraq and Afghanistan have underlined the limitations of military power and, in that way, undermined the effectiveness of the position that we can adopt in our foreign policy and the influence that we could bring to bear. We are undermined by recent events and the limitations that have been shown on military power. Undoubtedly, the economic situation of this country also means that substantial improvement in the funding of our Armed Forces and defence will be extremely difficult. That will also pose considerable limitations on what we are able to do to tackle those situations. Against that background, maximum international co-operation will be essential for our country if we are to make any progress in the difficult and dangerous challenges that we will face in the future.