---

Defence in the UK

Yes, and as I will say later, that programme is over schedule and over budget, and it comes in a period when the Navy has suffered unprecedented cuts but is still being asked to carry out a wide range of functions. The Navy was told that it needed a certain number of frigates and destroyers to carry out the tasks set out in the strategic defence review, but year on year, the Government cut back on those. It is only the astonishing professionalism of the Royal Navy that has enabled us to carry out so many of the tasks so well during that difficult period. Many of the same arguments for supporting the carrier programme are applicable to the nuclear deterrent. The Minister began by asking about the commitment of my party to a nuclear deterrent. If hon. Members think back, they will remember that my party has always been committed to such a deterrent. It was those on the left who tried throughout the 1980s to go for unilateral nuclear disarmament and who did not support the nuclear deterrent. There are three reasons why we must have a nuclear deterrent. The first is the unpredictable nature of the post-cold war era. The harsh reality is that in many ways we had it easy with the bipolarity and general predictability of the cold war. As opposed to the concept of east versus west, or democracy versus communism, the global security environment in which we are now forced to operate more closely resembles the multipolarity of the 19th century—not the 20th century, for which our instruments of national defence are structured. No one can accurately predict the threats that the UK will face between 2025 and 2055, when the next generation of the deterrent will be in service, just as no one 20 years ago could have predicted the speed of the collapse of the Soviet Union or the nature of the conflicts in which we are involved in Afghanistan and Iraq. Secondly, nuclear weapons simply cannot be uninvented; they will remain part of the international security picture in the future. The acquisition of nuclear weapons by North Korea and their attempted acquisition by Iran are real threats to our security. We do not have the right to gamble with the security of future generations. Thirdly, the United Kingdom has traditionally played a bigger role in acting on a number of global security-related issues than many of our medium-sized allies, especially in Europe. Consequently, we are more susceptible to future nuclear blackmail by rogue states in possession of nuclear arms.