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Armed Forces: Future Defence Policy

My Lords, I add my voice to those who have expressed sympathy for all those who have died, and particularly for their families. A lady who had lost her husband in Afghanistan quite recently was interviewed on the BBC this morning. The interviewer asked, "Do you know why he died?". She said, "I don’t have an answer, and I don’t know what I’m going to tell my children". Listening to the Prime Minister’s views and comments this morning, one cannot help wondering, where is the political will to win? Where is the leadership? You cannot win by looking at your toecaps. You have got to go out there and you have got to lead from the front. When you come to answer this lady, perhaps you could ask what the people of Afghanistan really want. They want freedom of the individual, backed up by the rule of law—that and economic well-being are what it is all about, and what we are there to help them to achieve. If America and the United Kingdom withdraw, the effect of that in an uncertain world would be to undermine our credibility for the future. The roll-over to Pakistan has been commented on. There would also be an effect in central Asia, in particular in a country that I know a great deal about. People never talk about the effect on India, which has always had uncertainty on its borders. Can noble Lords imagine India facing a Pakistan that is even more extreme, with 170 million Muslims in their midst? The knock-on effect was commented on recently by Henry Kissinger. Today we need a foreign policy and a military strength that allow us to have steel underneath the diplomatic glove. Sir Mark Stanhope, the First Sea Lord, put it better than I could in one of his speeches when he said: ""In terms of maximising choice, I am a firm believer that prevention of conflict is always better than cure. When you think about it, what the Government really wants from defence is the efficient delivery of one of the levers of national power—military force—in a way that maximises political freedom of choice. I think that has always been the case, but the need to preserve political choice has been thrown into sharper relief by the experience of recent campaigns. It depends on one’s ability to effectively influence the behaviour of others—state or non-state actors—who are your enemies or allies, potential enemies or potential allies. That ability to influence is in turn dependent on having a capable and credible military who can operate in support of a wider government strategy. It is precisely because the effective prevention of conflict in the future depends upon the continued credibility of our armed forces"—" I repeat, credibility— ""that the success of UK Armed Forces in the Afghanistan campaign is so important"." One has seen through history the importance of having a powerful carrier force. Eleven of my P&O ships were involved in the Falklands war. A carrier force is an extraordinary deterrent to conflict. I do not have a deep understanding of Trident, but if only once in 100 years we need to use or have the opportunity to use it to defend these islands, I totally support it. I am troubled by the military budget. Everybody is concerned about the recession, but the world will go on. I have been through five recessions. This may be the worst, but the world will not stop. This is a very wealthy country. According to Treasury figures, in 1987 we spent 4.3 per cent of our GDP on defence. Now we spend less than 2.6 per cent. Historically in a time of war one has always increased the spend on the military, and brought it down later—and we are in a time of war. It takes courageous government, backed by a powerful military option, to make good foreign policy. I conclude by saying that, whoever is in power in future, if the military develops in a flexible manner, perhaps we will be able to reply to the lady who was on the BBC this morning by saying, "Your husband died to create a better and safer world".