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Armed Forces: Future Defence Policy

My Lords, the Minister may have wanted a debate on the future defence policy of this nation, but I hope that he is taking away a message that what is worrying the country much more is the conduct of the operation in Afghanistan. I have huge admiration for the bravery and fortitude of the men and women of our Armed Forces in Afghanistan and elsewhere. However, I am equally disappointed by the number of our NATO allies which have imposed significant caveats on what their Armed Forces can do in Afghanistan. This sends a terrible message to their allies and has huge implications not only for the future relationship with the United States but the future of NATO as a whole. As I said, I pay great tribute to the courage and sacrifice of our Armed Forces in what is probably the most dangerous, challenging and hostile operational deployment that they have had for many years. I worry, first, about the lack of political direction and leadership, not just in the UK. I heard General McChrystal speak at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. I found his intellectual assessment of the challenges in Afghanistan realistic, but also very daunting. He certainly did not underestimate the challenges that lie ahead, but the delay in responding to General McChrystal’s request by the President of the United States and by our own Government is sending a very bad message about the direction of the campaign in Afghanistan. We need clear direction, not hesitant leadership. The Armed Forces in particular must have confidence in their political direction. They need to know that they have the nation’s support, that they are fighting in a just cause and that they are not risking their lives for nothing. If the Government have reservations about the plan outlined by General McChrystal, we need to know what they are, but a deadly silence is not enough. I would like to see greater emphasis not only on the commitment of other nations but also on improving the "hearts and minds" campaign, which is as important as the military campaign. It is also enormously important for our Armed Forces to believe that, in fighting in a campaign that is so difficult, they have the strong support and respect of the nation. That support is not only about words, it is about hard cash providing the capabilities that they need. They need to believe that their lives will not lightly be thrown away. In saying that, I realise that the President of the United States and this country’s leaders need to address the challenges of Afghanistan’s corrupt political leadership and how NATO is going to develop, as I have just said, a better co-ordinated hearts-and-minds campaign. We need to win the psychological war, not just the military war. The Prime Minister, unfortunately, has some baggage as far as the Armed Forces are concerned, because they have felt that he has never really been on their side and that they have not had his support. I do not need to tell your Lordships that leadership is as much about emotion as about logic. One cannot of course separate Afghanistan from Pakistan, a country of huge strategic importance, armed with nuclear weapons and having to carry out some very demanding military operations against extremists in its own territory. We need to be very wary about putting too much pressure on Pakistan, because of the impact on the loyalty of their Armed Forces and of the tension that it could create with India. As I have said, the Minister may be surprised that we have heard so little about a new Strategic Defence Review. I just hope that those who are involved in it understand that carrying out a review when the Armed Forces think that they are at war and involved in dangerous and complex operations could send a negative message. It could widen the communication gap which I believe is developing between the Armed Forces at the sharp end and the Government. The priority must be to agree a strategy for the way ahead in Afghanistan. In that connection, I would like to know where the Conservative Party stands on Afghanistan and on the future size and shape of our Armed Forces. If the Conservative Party wins the next election, it will inherit a defence quagmire: insufficient equipment, Afghanistan, sharply rising casualties, equipment delays and increasing equipment costs, and the need for greater investment in defence at a time when the defence budget is being reduced year on year in real terms. The new Government will have to make some hard decisions and choices. They will not be able to hide behind delaying the in-service date of certain equipment, which in turn leads to increased costs and mortgages a significant proportion of the future equipment programme. For example, I am told that the decision to delay for two years the £4 billion aircraft programme wanted for the carriers has added £1 billion to the bill. To quote a recent RUSI journal, ""time is really money and so it is Alice in Wonderland to try and save money by delaying equipment programmes"." The Government have a real challenge in handling Afghanistan, which is the most complex, difficult and dangerous operation for all three of the British Armed Forces. The way ahead is by no means clear but, at the same time, we need to be clear on what our defence priorities are.