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Queen’s Speech

My Lords, I see the noble Lord, Lord Moynihan, in his place. He will be missed from participating in this debate due to his missing the opening speeches. He was unavoidably detained as a result of his responsibilities this morning with London 2012. I know that he wishes to offer his apologies to your Lordships for not being able to participate this evening. The situation in Afghanistan, while ominous, does present opportunities. Before offering some thoughts, however, I wish to underline the following. An outright Taliban victory would be disastrous for the region and the world at large. We are doomed if we lose the good will of the Afghan people and if they cease to perceive our help as being in their interest. They must know that this war is also for them. Our soldiers are dying for them. I just wish to make a brief point and I do so having returned from Tajikistan yesterday, where time was spent considering the contribution of central Asian states to a peace process. Tajikistan and northern Afghanistan are key in carrying messages to the broader Afghanistan. There is now a recognition of the need to run a set of parallel approaches; a military-only option is wide of the mark and damaging long-term interests, with anti-western feelings being exacerbated in the Islamic world. Al-Qaeda is already considered a reality in many Muslim countries and the perception is that it is provided with a justification for its actions. We in the West will never succeed in imposing our will. In addition, western support for—some suggest—a corrupt Afghan Government must end. However, since support is a reality, we must work to alter the manner in which they conduct their affairs. It is exactly that, and that alone, which gives the impetus to the Taliban to be accepted by the poverty-stricken country. Simply put, the support for the Taliban is a result of a sense of hopelessness existing throughout Afghanistan, where the Government are seen, for all the recent election process, as corrupt and imposed. The UK and the US are looking at options to resolve and extricate themselves. I was therefore heartened by reading of the Clinton-Miliband proposals in Kabul this week. This runs exactly along the thinking of northerly neighbouring states. Three initiatives must go hand in hand: first, continue military options with well executed targets; secondly, an essential parallel programme of economic development should be immediately implemented—it should be remembered that Afghanistan was once rich in agricultural terms and that energy opportunities abound; thirdly, conduct a strategic-only dialogue with the—call them what you will—moderate Taliban and their supporters. The northern Afghanistan ethnic Tajik region would be a perfect springboard for implementing a diverse programme for a number of reasons. First, the region is comparatively safe. Secondly, the so-called northerly Moscow route of drugs could be systematically addressed. There could be a programme of total eradication of poppy in the region by spraying under an altered ISAF mandate, run in parallel with a diversified crops programme and, most important, markets into which to sell. I will add to this the essential need to stem the flow of precursor chemicals, the necessary ingredient for heroin production. Thirdly, American-supplied bridge infrastructure is already in place and could be further increased by locally delivered projects to cross the river. Fourthly, organisations such as the well respected Aga Khan Foundation could be supported to ensure that the chain of governmental structures is bypassed so that benefits reach those who are most in need. They have good relations with regional Governments, ground truth, local understanding and experience and connections with communities that translate into real opportunities, service delivery, incomes and jobs for people. This programme might start with strengthening local communities along the border areas and should include education. There will never be local representative systems in Afghanistan with the inability of its people to read and write. Fifthly, we should stem the tide of northbound Afghan refugees into Tajikistan. I commend to the House the outstanding and effective manner in which Ilija Todorovic, the head of the UNHCR in Dushanbe, carries out an extraordinary task with practically no resources. Through his good offices, I visited the apartment blocks where the refugees are housed and met a number of families. The lack of international support for his activities is a—I apologise for using this word—disgrace. I undertook not to forget Mr Todorovic. Ilija, I will not. Sixthly, I repeat that it is generally recognised that we must talk to the moderates. In years gone by, a member of the United Nations and I met the Taliban in Kandahar. It can be engaged with and official channels of contact can be established. From the perspective of the Taliban, its war against westerners is a holy war combined with a war of national liberation against foreign military occupation and a civil war against the corrupt ruling elite in Kabul, which they see brought to the table by the US and the UK. Among many messages that we must impart is that we are not about systematically disrupting or altering its deeply felt ideology. On our side, we must be assured that al-Qaeda will not be allowed to use Afghanistan for training and as a springboard for further atrocities. The Taliban must distance itself from al-Qaeda, and I suspect that it will use this as some form of final negotiation with the West. However, the practical reality is that the Taliban controls the everyday life of Afghans. As an example, last summer, the leadership issued strict guidelines containing rules on the behaviour of mujaheddin and commanders and on how prisoners must be treated and violators punished. Central Asian neighbours are convinced that military-only options are doomed, so I conclude on a point about timing. The Taliban associates the military intervention of the US in Muslim countries that occurred during the Republican Administration with Christian fundamentalists. Democrats are not perceived similarly. For this reason, the Taliban could be more easily persuaded to enter into discussions with the Democrats. By a similar logic, a possible change of political landscape in the UK would lead to an immediate opportunity.