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Finance (No. 3) Bill

One would assume that a Government estimate has been made on the basis of some evidence. My hon. Friend shrugs his shoulders, but he was in government for a time and I certainly give a Government the benefit of the doubt. I believe that their civil servants would make the best estimate they could based on the evidence they had. Past responses to fiscal changes in the taxation of fuel would of course be a good indicator. Either the Minister can tell me that that is the basis on which the estimate has been made or she is not certain. If she is not certain she should be honest and say so, because we will then need the further analysis proposed in the amendment.