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Commons Briefing paper by Philip Brien. It was first published on Friday, 27 March 2015. It was last updated on Friday, 25 September 2026.

Business and consumer confidence: Economic indicators

Economic indicators are quick-read summaries of the latest data focusing on different aspects of the UK economy. The full suite of indicators can be found on the main Economic Indicators page.

Confidence surveys, with information generally released ahead of official statistical data, can indicate changes to the economic outlook as well as turning points in the economic cycle.

ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey

The ONS conducts a voluntary survey of businesses to look at the impact of challenges facing the economy.

In the two weeks ending 20 September 2026, 18.2% of respondents thought their business's performance would increase over the next 12 months. 13.7% thought it would decrease.

Line chart showing the percentage of businesses expecting their performance to stay the same, increase or decrease over the next 12 months. Trends have mostly been consistent over time since May 2022, with "stay the same" accounting for over 40% of respondents, followed by "increase" (just over 20%) and "decrease" (roughly 10%). Following July 2024, the proportion of businesses expecting performance to decrease rose and the proportion expecting turnover to stay the same or increase fell slightly.

CBI Industrial Trends Survey

The CBI carries out monthly and quarterly Industrial Trends surveys.

In September 2026, more manufacturers thought that output would decrease over the next three months than thought it would increase (a difference of -6%). In August, the balance was -7%.

Line chart showing the balance of survey respondents expecting output to increase or decrease over the next three months. More usually expect an increase, but the balance has gone negative several times, particularly during the financial crisis, the 2011 recession, the covid-19 pandemic, and 2022.

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index measures a range of consumer attitudes, including forward expectations of the general economic situation and households’ financial positions, and views on making major household purchases.

The index rose to -13 in September 2026, up by one point from August.

Line chart showing the GfK consumer confidence index overall score. The index score reached a peak of +7 in mid-2015, but since then has been negative, with large dips during the covid-19 pandemic and in late 2022 (when it reached a record low of -49). It has since recovered to around -20.

Next updates

This page is updated when new data is published. The next source updates will be:

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https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02817/SN02817.pdf

Secondary information

Type
Research briefing
Reference
SN02817 
Category
Economic indicators
Subjects
Consumers Business Economic situation Manufacturing industries Surveys
Contains statistics
Yes
Published by
Economic Policy and Statistics Section
House of Commons Library
Link
View this Research briefing on researchbriefings.parliament.uk