---

Latin America

My Lords, for the second time in a week I wonder how I have the courage to intervene in a debate which has so far produced such expert speeches. I thank the noble Viscount for giving us an opportunity to talk about this important subject. I can never remember whether we met in Peru 35 years ago or in Cuba somewhat more recently, but we have known each other for a very long time. More or less wherever one goes in Latin America, the noble Viscount has either just been there or is just about to arrive. I recently revisited Peru, with the IPU, my first visit for more than 30 years. I was stunned once again by the size of the country, the wealth of its historical sites, the flowers, the landscapes, the climate zones and the people. In the late 1960s I was acutely aware of the poverty and of the geographical obstacles to good government. Power was in the hands of a white elite and the indigenous population was more or less ignored. In the intervening years Peru has suffered from the growth of the drugs trade, like other South American countries, and particularly from 20 years of conflict, particularly in the Andean zone, during which some 70,000 people, mostly Andean peasants, died. This was a conflict between Maoist terrorists called Sendero Luminoso—the leaders all with smart degrees from the Andean universities, more disgrace on them—and the army. It is difficult to decide which was the more violent and frightful in the way it carried out its business. In 2001 a commission for truth and reconciliation was established. We met several of its members while we were over there. In two years the commission itself established the death toll and highlighted the need for restorative justice, reparation for victims and the re-creation of civil society. It has also pointed to the need for access to health services and to education for the whole of Peruvian society, not just for the wealthy, together with the restoration of human rights and the punishment of the guilty. When we met the members of the commission, they were not as confident as one would have hoped that their recommendations were being heeded by politicians. No individual reparations have been made. The armed forces are partly protected against accusations of wrongdoing by the existence of a special military supreme court. On the other hand, the press is beginning to show up the military background of some current presidential candidates and progress is being made in education and health. It is important to recognise that democratic elections for the presidency were taking places. As the noble Viscount reminded us, democratic elections have been taking place over the past year or so and will continue to do so. There is quite a broad spread now of something like proper democratic elections and proper democratic procedures. There are two people in Peru left in the ring—Alan Garcia, the left-wing leader of the only real political party in Peru, and Umala, the indigenous candidate of unknown qualities, to say the least. One could be a little ruder, but I do not want to abuse the privilege of this House. This is a great tribute to the re-establishment of a culture of good management of elections by Peruvian NGOs. I should like to say at this point what I have said before in private meetings with the Minister and with other Ministers. Wherever we went, the role of DfID in supporting the re-establishment of civil society was widely praised. Its disappearance is mourned. While I understand that we cannot give aid, I hope that we shall continue to give technical advice and assistance in such matters as teacher training and improving the way in which civil society works. Much discussion is ongoing in academic circles and, as we heard from the noble Lord, Lord Walker, in other places as well, on the similarities or differences between the so-called new leaders of South America—Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Umala in Peru, if he succeeds, Morales in Bolivia, even Lula in Brazil and Kirchner in Argentina. To my way of thinking their exact position in relation to the left, right, Cuba/United States—all that series of contrasts—is less important than how their undoubted populism will lead them to react to the economic realities of the time: high commodity prices, macroeconomic stability but persistent inequality within society. I used to say when I lived in Peru that if I were a well educated Peruvian young woman instead of a well educated English young woman I would be on the left, even possibly a rather revolutionary left. No other approach seemed to me to be satisfactory given the problems that the country faced at that time. Now I say that one should redistribute the wealth that is coming from economic success into the poorer classes in Latin America, but make sure at the same time that someone is minding the money and managing the flow of cash so that it is not wasted or diverted into the wrong pockets or cut off by the foreign interests that own or manage much of the extraction which creates that wealth. If Latin American populism can be described—as it has been—as a bizarre blend of the inclusion of the excluded, macroeconomic folly and political staying power, it is the macroeconomic folly that needs to go. I hope and believe that there may still be a chance, albeit an outside one, that the next Peruvian president can successfully persuade the current manager of Peru’s finances to stay on. If that happens, it will be an excellent omen for the country’s future. I should like to mention one further item—the Chinese influence in South America. I shall do so very briefly. The Chinese are buying raw materials and selling back manufactured goods. What does that remind us of—the British Empire? In the same way, the value added came to us, not to the suppliers of the raw materials that we used. That is an economic danger of the influence of China over Latin American countries, particularly the ones which border the Pacific. I rather hope that the Peruvians, for example, will take decisions which will encourage and promote the refining of some of their minerals, thus creating greater added value and more jobs for the job-hungry populations on the coast. Lots of good things are happening in Peru. Huge efforts are being made to head off a possible AIDS epidemic. Peruvian organisations are working hard to address some of the damage done by growing coca in Amazonia; to ensure fair election processes; and to carry education to the people who live in the Andes or healthcare into the slums. But if the macroeconomic bit does not work, so much of that could be lost.