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Middle East and Afghanistan

My Lords, the issues we are debating today have direct implications for our own security here in the United Kingdom. Our domestic security necessitates marginalising extremism by winning hearts and minds. However, a significant number of hearts and minds are not being won in some quarters by the perception of what is happening, or failing to happen, in the Gulf, the Middle East and Afghanistan. Nothing can justify the vicious and sinister terrorism, but in the grim reality of Iraq there are lessons to be learnt, and which must be seen to be learnt, if we are to have credibility in the global role we seek to play. First, trust is essential, and it was extensively damaged when the reason given for intervention and its timing proved false. Secondly, the absence of a specific, convincing Security Council resolution did not just mean that some ritualistic formula had been neglected, or even just that international law had been flouted. Its absence meant that a sufficient global consensus for what was being undertaken had not been achieved, and that as adverse consequences predictably accumulated, dangerous polarisation inevitably grew, accentuating hostility towards those primarily involved, not least the United States and us. Thirdly, it was inexcusable to launch such major action without having thought through and planned for all the potential consequences. Building peace matters every bit as much as winning wars. Official refusal to acknowledge the number of civilian casualties and fatalities during the intervention was provocative, wrong, insensitive and highly counter-productive. The brutalities which followed by some of the security and armed services compounded this. Fourthly, plans for a constitutional and political settlement have to be owned by a widespread and representative cross-section of those for whom it is being made. Durable democracy, justice and stability have to be carefully built from the foundations upwards; they cannot simply be orchestrated and coerced by outsiders. Of course the outside world can assist, and reliable and inclusive regional guarantees, arguably involving both Syria and Iran, could be a vital part of this, but a lasting solution cannot be imposed by outsiders. To say all this is in no way to condone or deny the barbaric cruelty of the previous regime in Iraq. However, what is sad is that the tragic consequences of the intervention and the way it has been conducted may have become even more globally destabilising than was that regime with all its sick manifestations. In the morass, as it now is, nothing matters more than to endeavour to find a constitutional and political way forward that meets the situation as it is, rather than as we would like it to be. We cannot just walk away; that would be cynical and irresponsible. We have to face up to the consequences of our actions, but the way in which we do that must relate to what is really a viable way forward, however radically different this may prove to be from what we hoped would happen. In the Middle East, justice remains an indispensable element for success. Historically, the United Kingdom carries a special responsibility to the people of Israel. Our forebears were among those who played a lead role in the creation of that nation, but we must never forget that no people paid a higher price for the creation of Israel than the Palestinians. Maximum possible justice for them must therefore always be, and be seen to be, a priority. We all welcome the ceasefire. Now the Government of Israel must be encouraged to understand that finding a viable way forward will necessitate talking with people with whom it is not easy to talk, as we ourselves discovered in Northern Ireland. It is a flawed and counter-productive approach to talk only to those with whom it is easy to talk. The objective is surely to marginalise irreconcilable extremism. Bridges must be built with those in Hamas and Hezbollah who can be won to a political process. Once more, our experience in Northern Ireland is relevant. As with Iraq, the outside world can assist—as can regional neighbours, not least Syria if it is seriously so minded—but it cannot impose a lasting solution. Meanwhile, the destabilising humanitarian plight of the Palestinians must be addressed. The suspension of international aid to the Palestinian Authority—$350 million of direct budgeting support in 2005—and the withholding of tax revenues by Israel, which totalled $814 million in 2005, have led to a dramatic increase in poverty. The World Bank has estimated that poverty increased to 44 per cent in 2005 and is expected to rise to 67 per cent in 2006. There has been a drastic contraction in public services, with essential medicines in short supply, public hospitals stopping all but emergency treatment and dialysis, and health NGOs facing collapse with the curtailment of Ministry funding. The temporary international mechanism has not halted the decline. While it may be true that 60,000 public sector workers have received partial payments under the TIM, it is estimated that as many as 90,000 workers have been excluded from the scheme, mostly security personnel. The World Bank believes that public sector incomes have dropped by 60 per cent. Meanwhile, refuse collection and sanitation are at breaking point. Cesspits are overflowing, and refuse is piling up in the streets. The TIM provides its funding through the Fatah office of the president, but the danger is that such parallel funding structures undermine existing Ministries and complicate nation-building and stability. It has been disturbing to hear of the upsurge in fighting in the south of Afghanistan, linked as it is to a revival of the Taliban and the determination by the Afghan Government and the NATO ISAF to establish government authority there. It is especially disturbing that the Taliban infiltration seems to be occurring in new areas in the west and centre—for example, Farah and Wardak—threatening to spread to areas of the north with Pashtun populations, and is now close to Kabul itself. There are reports that shadow government structures are being set up in parts of northern Helmand, with sporadic attempts at control in other areas. At the same time it seems that, in non-Taliban areas, local commanders with well armed militias are posing a serious threat to the authority of the Government and hampering reconstruction efforts. Like others, I am concerned by the failure of some NATO members to live up to what had been expected of them in Afghanistan. It must raise questions about the future of NATO. Indeed, I wonder whether it does not throw new light on the importance of military co-operation within the European Union. Dependability is critical in military planning and operations. That demands closer political integration, it seems to me. It has become clear that the unanticipated strength of the military opposition in Afghanistan has undermined the intended two-pronged strategy of military toughness and humanitarian effectiveness. Does my noble friend not agree that it remains true that the use of military power alone will never resolve the current problems in Afghanistan? Is it not essential to give equal emphasis to increasing the capacity of Afghan institutions to manage security, improve governance, and both lead and deliver on reconstruction and development? Poverty should surely be recognised as one of the key causes of the current instability. Afghanistan, after all, is ranked 173rd out of 178 countries on the human development index. Does my noble friend also agree that more donor attention and resources must therefore be directed towards those areas where they can make a tangible difference to the security problem over a longer time frame; for example, health and education, employment programmes, justice sector capacity-building, and police and army reforms? In a report published on 27 November, Oxfam—I declare an interest as a former director—highlighted that half the children in Afghanistan still did not go to school, despite a 500 per cent increase in enrolment in the past six years. With the advent of democracy, the main symbol of national regeneration lay in the dream of educating every child—boy and girl. However, there remain many obstacles to achieving that. Demand for education has to be bolstered, as does the confidence to stay in the education system. The Oxfam report underlines that extra investment in school buildings is desperately required. Over half of pupils do not go to school because there is no school nearby; over half of the schools need major repairs; the majority are without clean drinking water or toilet facilities, while 2 million children study in tents or in the open air. Against that background, Oxfam has called on the international community to invest $563 million to rebuild 7,800 schools across the country. In Afghanistan there may be up to 10 million small arms circulating in a country with a population of just 23 million. Guns have arrived in three waves since conflict began in 1979. Up to 2 million people are thought to have died since then, and hundreds more are disabled by their injuries. The guns come from all over the world, including the US, the UK, France, India and Pakistan. While some disarmament has taken place, many leaders of armed groups still possess weapons and use them to abuse and threaten people and to steal property. As in so many other crises elsewhere in the world, ordinary people have to pay the price. Surveys suggest that nearly two-thirds of Afghans now believe that disarmament is the most important way to improve security. There is no simple solution. Ex-combatants must be disarmed, demobilised and reintegrated into their communities. UN programmes, albeit with mixed results, have attempted to achieve that. Alternative sources of livelihood must be provided so that the gun is not the only means of survival. Foreign Governments should remember their part in arming Afghan warring sides in the past and therefore recognise their heavy responsibility to ensure that arms supplies do not fall into the wrong hands. The world really must take responsibility for the arms it supplies. To do that, the proposed new international arms trade treaty should be urgently agreed. I must congratulate our Government on their strong leadership on this. The United Kingdom was commendably active at the UN General Assembly in October. As consultation goes forward in 2007 and the group of governmental experts is convened, the Government will have to keep up the pressure on the United States—the only country to block the vote for an ATT in New York—and on the other countries which, by their abstention, could become obstacles to the achievement of a legally binding arms trade treaty. I understand that there will be a further relevant vote on these matters in the UN General Assembly this week. I am among those who fervently want to see the United Kingdom play a lead role in international security. The issues we have debated today illustrate what a complex challenge that is. We cannot police the world on our own. What is required is a strong commitment to the United Nations, to effective international and regional arrangements for military and police co-operation, and to making a success of the international rule of law, so badly set back by the kind of intervention that took place in Iraq. This means that we must critically examine our current and future defence expenditure to ensure that we give substance to this global commitment. It is highly questionable whether it remains appropriate to renew colossally expensive, and arguably distorting, unilateral postures of the past. Prioritisation is essential. We must will the relevant and effective means as well as the ends. All this also means never bringing about a faltering in the brave endeavour by putting our courageous men and women of the armed services at risk of failure by expecting them to be in too many places at once or by sending them into operations ill equipped.