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Middle East and Afghanistan

My Lords, events in Israel and Palestine in the past couple of weeks have raised hopes yet again that there may be a way forward which will resolve their particular conflict. Ehud Olmert’s positive speech and Mahmoud Abbas’s enormous efforts are both very encouraging. But optimism is not a word that one often uses about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and we do have to be realistic about what might be achieved. Nevertheless it seems not unreasonable to think that—if left to themselves—Abbas and Olmert could reach some form of agreement acceptable to both the Palestinians and Israelis even though it is likely to mean concessions by each of them. But I fear they will not be left to themselves and that a malign influence from elsewhere will determine the outcome. And it is in Syria—and especially in Iran where the strings of Hamas and Hezbollah are being pulled—where I believe we in the UK will have to focus our efforts if we are to be of any help at all. Here in the UK and in this House it is common to criticise Israel for not doing enough or for doing the wrong things—and of course there are many things for which we should be critical. Indeed that debate is going on even more vehemently in Israel itself than it is in your Lordships’ House—difficult to believe but it is true. But in criticising Israel we do have to keep a sense of balance if we are to have any influence at all there—or indeed among the Palestinians. And I fear we have little influence. There is much talk here of putting pressure on Israel to negotiate with the Palestinians, to make concessions, to cease disproportionate responses to acts of terrorism, to accept a two-state solution and in return Israel will be able to live in peace and security. But that is just what Israel has been desperate to achieve itself. It is just what Ehud Olmert repeated in his speech of a couple of weeks ago, including the prospect of two states living in peace side by side. No one should imagine that Israel wants to continue to live in a state of siege and under constant threat of terrorist attacks. Nor can anyone look at the desperate plight of the Palestinians and think that peace and security is anything but what they are desperate to achieve. So what is stopping them? I agree with much of what other noble Lords have said, but I would like to put a slightly different slant on things. Israel is about the size of north-west England, from where I hail—about 30 miles wide and just over 200 miles long. It has more or less the same population as the north-west. If you look at the map of the Middle East it is a mere dot in an area the size of Europe made up of very hostile states stretching across Iran, Iraq and Syria. Israel not unnaturally feels extremely threatened by nations that have repeatedly tried to invade it since it was formed and are now promising its destruction even more vehemently. You might ask whether withdrawing from Gaza has improved matters for either the Palestinians or the Israelis. And you might also ask whether there is any encouragement here for Israel to withdraw from the West Bank without the acceptance by Hamas and its leaders of Israel’s right to exist. Remember that missiles fired from Gaza currently have a range of about eight miles and an independent, Hamas-run West Bank firing missiles with a similar range would have Israel—30 miles wide—in a very uncomfortable position. Just imagine if the population of Lancashire, for example, had several hundred rockets fired at them each month from Yorkshire on one side and north Wales on the other. They might expect the UK Government to intervene, especially if the rockets were being supplied from, say, France or Germany. Israel’s experience of withdrawal is not good, so what sort of reassurance can the UK Government or the UN give that its borders with the Palestinian state will be secure? Only a peace agreement, with all parties signed up, can give that reassurance, certainly not the UN or other external bodies. So when noble Lords talk of putting pressure on Israel to make concessions and negotiate, it is worth remembering that Israel was and is ready to do just that, but it needs someone to deal with. While it is clear that moderate Palestinians under Mahmoud Abbas’s leadership are ready and willing, it is far from certain what Hamas will do—or, rather, what its leadership in Damascus will allow it to do. The report this weekend that Hamas is unwilling to work with Abbas yet again dampens the prospect of negotiations achieving a great deal. Let me turn to where we might focus our mind if we are to help the Palestinians and Israelis reach a solution desirable to both; because the most strident voices against any form of peace agreement are in Hezbollah and Hamas and they, in turn, are the agents of Syria and Iran. There is no room to doubt now that they are funded, trained and controlled by those states. It seems equally clear that they do not have at heart the interests of not just the Israelis but the Palestinians or the Lebanese, for that matter. Can anyone seriously believe that Iran and Syria are concerned about the Palestinians or Lebanese when they risk the lives of women and children by not only siting their missiles and militia among them but also recruiting them to run forward whenever Israel threatens retaliation? That is pure cynical manipulation of the local population, sacrificed on the altar of extremism emanating from elsewhere. The sources of the problem of the Middle East lie with Iran and Syria, and no amount of pressure on Israel will make any difference to Iran’s desire to destroy it. To suggest that it is simply the current extreme leader in Iran spouting off for local consumption flies in the face of the evidence of years of preparation of Hamas and Hezbollah for the moment when they can put into effect their desire to remove Israel from the face of the Earth. Then we come to Iraq, and the part proposed for Iran and Syria in its reconstruction. It is fascinating to hear the word ““reconstruction”” in relation to those two countries whose recent histories focus more on destruction—unless, of course, you regard Syria’s actions in Lebanon as aiding reconstruction. When I hear that these states might be courted to help in Iraq, I reflect on how Iran, which has been at war with Iraq on and off for years, may have had just a little twinge of satisfaction at the invasion by the western powers, and now it is being asked to take it over, with hardly any effort on its part. What an excellent position to be in. Clearly I am not nearly so sanguine as the noble Lord, Lord Howell, and some other noble Lords about Iran’s role in Iraq. Let us look at what the result would be as and when the US and UK and other forces finally leave Iraq, as they must at some time. Iran is likely to ensure a Shia takeover after a war with the Sunnis; we will then have a huge and extraordinarily powerful block stretching from Iran, through Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon, with all the dangers that that entails for the rest of the world. I have heard that Israel is described by extremists as the little Satan and America as the big Satan. The UK and Europe are the medium-sized Satans. Examples of anti-western terrorist activities are pretty widespread across the world, and there is little comfort to be gained from hearing of Iran and Syria’s potential role in Iraq, to say nothing of the severe threat that that poses for little Jordan and Israel in the middle. Let us talk to Iran and Syria, but for that we need a very long spoon indeed. If the idea of wooing them is simply to extricate our troops from Iraq, then it sounds like realpolitik at its most short-sighted and it could be extremely dangerous for us and the rest of the world. We must try to convince Israel to exert as much self-control as it can when it responds to suicide bombers and missile attacks. We must try to support it and the Palestinians in an even-handed way in any negotiations they may be able to initiate. But unless we also understand that the solution lies not in Israeli or even Palestinian hands, we will be whistling in the wind. So is there anything useful we in the UK could be doing? I think there is. First, we must do all we can to support Mahmoud Abbas; we must try to channel funds to aid him and his fellow moderates. The situation for the Palestinians is desperate, and we must help him in his desire to gain the support of his people. It is vital, of course, that the funds are not diverted into arms for Hamas. Secondly, we must enlist the support of other states in the region, especially Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but also the North African and Gulf states, Turkey and Jordan. If we in the UK are going to achieve anything at all, it will only be with the support and influence of these countries, which are not driven by a distorted, extreme religious fanaticism. We are unfortunate in having the recent distraction of the Serious Fraud Office investigation of aeroplane contracts with Saudi Arabia. We must solve that quickly; we cannot afford to be alienated from them at this critical time. We need all the friends in the Middle East we can get. Thirdly, we should recognise that many inside Iran are very disturbed by the rhetoric and actions of their leaders. It is here that we might be able to see some internal changes, carried out not by external force but coming from within, through Iranians themselves. It is not easy, but many brave people there have been resisting the mullahs’ efforts to suppress them. The People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran is a non-violent resistance movement opposed to the current regime, and its members are suffering terribly because of their opposition. They are regularly tortured—and publicly killed—in Iran, yet despite that, their numbers are growing. They exist in large numbers outside Iran, here and in Europe. They also have a small town in Iraq called Ashraf, where for the moment they are safe, but the Iranian regime is seeking to destroy them. I fear that any deal struck with Iran over Iraq’s future will see the immediate destruction of that town and the slaughter of its unarmed citizens. This non-violent group, the PMOI, is currently on the UK’s proscribed list of terrorist organisations. What a topsy-turvy world we live in when it is the current Iranian regime that should be on that list rather than those who oppose it. We must encourage a change in Iran, not by extreme actions by foreign nations but by the Iranians themselves. The first step might be the de-proscription of the PMOI. I have tried to indicate that while the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has to be resolved, it is no use simply focusing our pressures on Israel when the resolution depends to the same extent on Iran and Syria. It is there that we should focus our efforts. Incidentally, even if Israel and Palestine are finally settled, we will still have to face the problem posed by the Iranian brand of Islamic fundamentalism, so we may as well start there anyway.