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Middle East and Afghanistan

My Lords, at this stage of the debate much has been said by noble Lords far better qualified than me, but I have some observations. First, the noble Lord, Lord Dahrendorf, talked about the unintended consequences of the invasion of Iraq; I have another. I served in Headquarters 1 (UK) Armoured Division in Iraq in March 2003. At all levels, we honestly believed that we faced a threat from chemical or biological weapons. Your Lordships will not be surprised to hear that we were not deterred; we had countermeasures, training and brilliant leadership. What does that tell the rest of the world? Very simply, it says that US/UK forces will not be deterred by the threat of chemical or biological weapons. Since very few non-nuclear states can resist a conventional attack by US/UK forces through the use of conventional weapons alone, the only way a state can acquire an ultimate guarantee of security—to use the language of yesterday’s Statement on Trident—is to have some form of nuclear weapon, even without an effective missile-delivery system. Little wonder, therefore, that Iran actively seeks nuclear weapons. The fact that our invasion of Iraq was of questionable legality and necessity does not help. My second point is that many noble Lords are concerned about military overstretch. Your Lordships have worried about tour intervals for at least a decade, but I shall add a little more detail than even the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Craig, gave us. Some time ago I asked the then Defence Minister, the noble Lord, Lord Bach, for how many years we had operated outside defence planning assumptions. He erroneously answered, ““None””. A suitable letter was sent to me and placed in the Library, adding more detail, as its introduction put it. The fact is that we have operated outside the DPAs for many years. That should keep alarm bells ringing in Defence Ministers’ offices continuously. The Government have also quietly reduced our capability under defence planning assumptions. We are now able to conduct either two small-scale enduring operations or one medium-scale enduring operation; ““medium-scale”” means a brigade. Alternately, we can make one large-scale intervention—““intervention”” implies a short timescale, about six months—and follow it with a medium-scale sustaining operation. So what are we currently doing? The answer is two medium-scale-plus operations—Operation TELIC in Iraq and Operation Herrick in Afghanistan—in addition to several minor operations. As we know, both operations are very challenging—we have talked about the problems today, so I shall not repeat them—but what is the effect? It is not just the problem of the tour interval alone—the pressure on the serviceman—that noble Lords have talked about. The problem is lack of training. Yes, there is good training for the current operations, but we are not training enough for the ability to prosecute a high-intensity operation at the large scale of effort. We are building into our Regular Army and other Armed Forces a weakness because, in time, officers at all levels will have missed out on vital training experience. I think that many noble Lords were surprised at the weakness exposed in the Israel Defense Forces recently. The military costs of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan may be far higher than realised, because they are hidden. Worse still, no amount of extra resources later will be able to replace that loss of training and experience. It will be built into our Armed Forces for years to come. My third observation concerns Iraq and Afghanistan. The outlook for Iraq is bleak; I have not heard any serious commentator suggest anything else. It is important to recognise that, in both campaigns, the media consistently exaggerate the difficulties and minimise the successes, a point made by the noble Lord, Lord Hannay. I cannot recently recall reading anything positive about either campaign, and it is ridiculous to suggest that successes do not occur regularly. It is not a failing on the part of Ministers and officials. Good news stories are available; however, the media choose not to publish them. That is extremely frustrating for those officers responsible. But intriguingly in respect of Afghanistan, when many senior officers privately brief me, they are confident of the outcome. The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, gave us a glimmer of hope. Many noble Lords have referred to the general reluctance of NATO nations to contribute troops to operations in Afghanistan. I agree with their sentiments; it is extremely disappointing and a major challenge for NATO. However, the telling point from one senior officer was that they would jump on the bandwagon later when the operation came right, or words to that effect. I hope to see that situation obtain in due course. There has been much talk about the legitimate economy for Afghanistan—my noble friend Lord Eccles talked about the need to get Afghanistan into the global economy—but I have yet to hear what Afghan farmers are expected to produce as an alternative to narcotics in the short term. In the longer term the education programme, especially education for women, as outlined by the Minister and the noble Baroness, Lady Symons, must be the right approach. But what can be legitimately exported from Afghanistan to sustain that country, and how? Transport from Afghanistan to the market, especially in the developed world, is expensive, tortuous and insecure. Even NATO containers going to our operations in Afghanistan are mysteriously raided. Can anything be done to minimise or reduce transport costs for the Afghan economy? If the Minister cannot answer that now, perhaps he could write to me later. At present, the transport system and economy favour high-value, low-volume, low-inherent-skill products. Opium, say at £100 a kilo, is ideal. I wonder what the effect would be of putting in place a subsidised, reliable and secure transport system to the European markets, perhaps a very regular Antonov flight at very low cost. In the long term, what is being considered for reliable road and rail links to a sea port from Afghanistan? I know that it is a long way and that it would have to go through other countries, but it would go some way to meet the concerns outlined by my noble friend Lord Eccles about developing the Afghan economy. If nothing is done about transport links for goods, it is hard to see how the Afghan per capita income can be increased. The invasion of Iraq has encouraged the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The media, while correctly identifying problems, would be much more responsible if they covered some military and civilian successes in theatre. However, my greatest concern is the permanent damage to our Armed Forces due to operating far outside the defence planning assumptions.