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Kosovo

My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Anderson of Swansea, on securing this debate. It has enabled your Lordships’ House to consider the current hiatus in moves to decide Kosovo’s future status. With such distinguished speakers, we would expect no less in your Lordships’ House. In some ways it is ironic that the manoeuvring that triggered the first war and the break-up of Yugoslavia began in Kosovo in 1989, when Slobodan Milosevic scrapped the Serbian province’s autonomous status. Now we have turned full circle back to negotiations over Kosovo’s independence. I declare an interest as a member of the British Association for Central and Eastern Europe (BACEE), run superbly by Nicholas Jarrold. We have been aware that this period will be one of crucial decisions for Kosovo and the Balkans. The United Nations-sponsored final status talks have started, and after more than six years of UN rule it is time for the people of Kosovo—Albanian and Serb alike—to be given a chance to define their future. Together with the United Nations and our European partners, we support a process that will determine Kosovo’s future status. It will require Kosovo’s leadership to continue progress on the UN-endorsed standards that are designed to make certain the basic values of multi-ethnicity, democracy and market orientation, while placing Kosovo decisively on the path to integration with Europe. The Kosovo Serb community and the Government of Serbia and Montenegro must also assume a heavy share of responsibility for successful negotiations. Belgrade should help Kosovo’s Serbs make certain that they will have a place in whatever political structure emerges. No one can deny that Kosovo is an emotional matter for the Serbs. Historically, it lay at the heart of Serbia’s medieval empire. It is where they lost a battle in 1389 that led to 500 years of Ottoman rule and it contains some of their main religious sites. It is a Serbian province, rather than an ex-Yugoslav republic, such as Montenegro. Indeed, the new Serbian constitution, as summarised by Dana, a Serbian daily paper, "““promised a Kosovo in Serbia and a Serbia in Europe””." The paper went on to note that, "““it is hard to tell which is further away””." That statement currently rings true, given that over90 per cent of Kosovo’s 2 million people are ethnic Albanians who will settle only for independence, and opinion polls show that although most Serbs would like the position to which the constitution aspires, too few believe that independence can be prevented. As noble Lords have highlighted, the Serbian constitutional referendum and the forthcoming legislative elections have been a tactical delay of the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy. The report sets out proposals that were originally due at the end of this year. While the current postponement has been made in agreement with members of the Contact Group, we support, as did the noble Lord, Lord Ashdown, in his eloquent speech, Martii Ahtisaari’s resistance to being further delayed until after a future Serbian presidential election. Sources suggest that Mr Ahtisaari’s proposals are likely to be along the lines of an independent Kosovo, but with a continuing international presence to protect minority rights, as was stressed by the noble Lord, Lord Hannay. Can the Minister indicate whether the Government have considered this option ahead of the report’s publication and whether they have had any discussions with key partners about the possibility of a continuing international presence and its consistency? What consideration have they given to the views of Kosovo’s politicians on a continuing international presence? The noble Lord, Lord Hannay, said that there could be no doubt that Russia’s reaction as a member of the Contact Group would be a key factor in the final outcome for Kosovo’s independence. I totally agree with him. Russia will doubtless be assessing the precedent that might be set for both Chechnya, which it wishes to hold on to, and the Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as assessing their views on a potential NATO and EU presence. What discussions have Her Majesty’s Government had with Serbia’s traditional ally on these issues, and what assessment have they made of Russia’s current thinking? Several factors could influence the current impasse in the moves for Kosovo’s independence. Prime Minister Kostunica highlighted that Serbia will seek international financial support, should independence lead to an influx of a large number of Serbian refugees into Serbia. Have Her Majesty’s Government given any undertakings in this respect? Meanwhile, the Economist recently cited concerns that, even if there is independence, the Serb-inhabited north of Kosovo will ignore it and continue to operate as it does now as part of Serbia. There may be a need to redraw municipal boundaries and to give full protection for all religious sites. It is clear that a nasty side effect of independence could be a further strengthening of nationalistic parties, raising the risk of trouble spreading once again through this already war-torn region. As noble Lords have said, it is time for the EU to take up the mantle from the UN and NATO, and to play a firm and decisive role to try and move towards independence in a consensual manner, which is reasonably possible.