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Climate Change Bill [Lords]

I note that, but as was pointed out earlier, the discount rates in Lord Stern's report grossly exaggerate the benefits of taking action and underestimate the cost of doing so. In artificially applying a 2 per cent. discount rate, he of course got the answer that he wanted. By any stretch of the imagination, costs amounting to 2 per cent. of gross domestic product will have a massive impact on our ability to finance public services. Again, those costs will be felt by individuals. Some of the costs identified by Lord Stern—the impact on flooding, on food production and so forth—were predictions based on models with hundreds of variables. Even scientists have accepted that they do not understand all the connections between those variables. The hon. Member for Brent, North (Barry Gardiner) will know something about economic modelling, but climate change modelling is even more complicated and even less certain. We already know the impact of some economic models and we know how true the connections have been. The inclusion of aviation and shipping in the Bill has been accomplished without spelling out the costs. We will all be held responsible and we will all be held to account for that. What are the costs for our constituents? They have not been spelled out. Secondly, as has emerged from a number of speeches, the degree of state and international planning involved in the whole exercise is considerable. Indeed, the hon. Member for Bexhill and Battle (Gregory Barker) pointed out that there are often unintended consequences in pursuing state and international planning. I heard the enthusiasm of some Conservative Members; they usually argue in favour of the working of the market and the market economy, yet some of them seemed to embrace a degree of state control and state planning that would make some of the left-wing Labour Members cheer and clap at the prospect. My second point, then, is that there will be a huge increase in Government regulation and Government interference in the economy, with all the consequences that will follow, yet we know how successful state planning has been in the past. Thirdly, all this pain will not have an impact on CO2 emissions in any case, because most of them are to be taken up by the use of the emissions trading scheme, whereby permits to pollute and produce emissions can be bought. We have already heard about caps, but Europe is awash with permits at the moment. To get Russia involved in the Kyoto protocol, it was given permits based on 1990 levels—when, of course, CO2 emissions from huge, inefficient and dirty state industries were massive. Many of those industries have closed down; their emissions are no longer. However, the ETS mechanism will enable aviation and shipping industries to purchase, from Russia and other countries awash with emissions, certificates to produce CO2 emissions that are not currently being produced. Rather than a reduction, we could actually see an increase in CO2 emissions. The impact will only add to the costs of industry, which will then be borne by consumers and people who wish to travel. The hon. Member for Northavon (Steve Webb), speaking for the Liberal Democrats, said that he thought this was more a nudge and a wink, and that nothing much would be done at the end of the day as the Government would find ways around meeting the targets. That might well be the best result. The problem is that in the interim we are going to face additional costs and additional disadvantages to our economy. My hon. Friend the Member for South Antrim (Dr. McCrea)—he totally disagrees with my views on this issue, incidentally, but I agree with him on this—pointed out that those costs will not be felt evenly. Some constituencies will suffer the costs much more heavily than others. If we are going to vote this Bill through, we should at least make people aware of the impact it is likely to have on them, their livelihoods and their economic activities.