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Education and Skills Bill

My Lords, two things are different from the last time I was on my feet on this subject. First, the noble Lord, Lord Dearing, has been able to take forward these complicated matters. I am enormously thankful for that. Secondly, sadly, the economic situation has changed quite dramatically. So, as we have already heard, we are reluctantly looking at a different situation. What is decided at level 3 bears directly on what we can achieve at level 4. Let us focus on that. Our achievement at level 3 will largely determine the ceiling of what can be achieved at level 4. In supporting the amendment to extend to 30 the age limit for support for level 3 students, I note that the noble Lord, Lord Dearing, referred to Germany and the United States having already exceeded the commonly quoted target of 40 per cent at level 4 by 2020. The same may of course also be said for Japan, Canada and Russia, which have similarly already achieved that level 4. How can a Government be serious in setting targets for 2020, as we know this Government are, which five competitor nations have already achieved? Who knows how many more will join them, including France and South Korea, for example? It would not be extremely worrying if we could assume that, having already passed 40 per cent at level 4, those countries would rest on their laurels; but we have no grounds for assuming that that will happen, when it is commonly accepted across the globe that competitive advantage is achieved by investment in education. In 12 years, those countries could well reach 50 per cent. Speaking bluntly, I am more than sad that we are pulling back from the proposals that we made earlier that support for students aspiring to level 3 should extend across the entire working life, or certainly until at least the age of 50; but I am aware that cost is very much an issue. I note, however, that at the Labour Party conference—admittedly it was last year, but nevertheless it was important—the Prime Minister said that, "““this is the century when we cannot afford to waste the talents of anyone … we need to unlock the talents of all our people. In the last century the question was can we afford to do this? In the face of economic challenge, I say: in this century we cannot afford not to””." I would gladly accept the argument that there are more cost-effective ways of achieving progress towards the kind of level 3 performance that we need by 2020—somewhere between 45 per cent and 50 per cent, as my noble friend Lord Dearing argued. However, if the Government cannot even accept our proposal to extend the age limit for support to 30, or something around that age, bearing mind that 70 per cent of those who will be of working age in 2020 are already at work, will the Minister answer the following now, or before the next stage of the Bill? First, in the light of the performance of other countries, what is a desirable level of achievement for level 4 by 2020? Secondly, by what measures will the Government achieve that figure and what will each measure contribute?