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Heathrow

I entirely accept the hon. Gentleman’s point, to which I am sympathetic. There is considerable argument over which base figure to use and it is possible to produce very different conclusions depending on what is chosen. Of course, it is possible to argue—the Secretary of State did so afternoon—that we should not worry too much because the Government are going to include the aviation industry in the EU emissions trading scheme. I draw the Secretary of State’s attention to the fact that Ernst and Young calculated in June last year that even in the toughest EU scenario—I must say that, bearing in mind we are talking about the EU, I would not bank on that—aviation emissions will grow by 83 per cent. by 2020. That is fractionally less than business-as-usual scenarios. Another argument that is often used and which needs to be put on the table is that the airline industry will get round the problem simply by buying carbon credits from other industries or from abroad under the emissions trading scheme, while still expanding with impunity. I think that that is extremely perverse and the fact remains that the EU will almost certainly set the credits allowance well below the level that is needed by the industry. Finally, one environmental constraint, which will apply very quickly, is mandatory under EU law and cannot be circumvented. I refer to mandatory EU targets on nitrogen oxide, which come into force in 2010—only a little more than a year away. The Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs admitted at last week’s Question Time that NOx levels are already being breached in London. I hate to say this, but, frankly, it is ridiculous to pretend, as the Government do, that if the number of flight movements goes up by 50 per cent.—from 480,000 to 720,000—it will not push up NOx pollution and noise above lawful levels.