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Military balance in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is a region of vast untapped natural resources, home to some of the world’s most important maritime trade routes and an area with a significant number of longstanding territorial disputes, in particular in the South China Sea.

In the last few years the geopolitical balance in the region has begun to shift, primarily in response to China’s economic and military rise, but also as a result of the perception that US interest in the region has waned since 9/11. While relations with China have been generally positive, there has been an increasing anxiety among Southeast Asian states over China’s military assertiveness in the region, and in particular the inclusion of the South China Sea in those areas that China considers constitute its “core interests”.

As a result many countries have sought to reinvigorate relations with the US and other global powers in order to balance the hegemonic rise of China; while at the same time significantly increasing defence spending and pursuing ambitious modernisation programmes for their respective militaries. Such developments have led many to argue that the region is on the brink of a potential arms race as states look to defend their national interests in the region and in particular their access to energy and other natural resources.