---

Defence in the World

I do not blame the hon. Gentleman for intervening—he was not to know that I intend to come back to the subject of Iraq. I was merely headlining some of the issues that I shall cover. In bald terms, we all understand that our task is to move forward to the political control of Iraq by the Iraqi people, to move forward in creating the capability among the security forces to protect and serve that democratic Government, and simultaneously to create the economic and social environment that demonstrates the benefits of democracy to the people of Iraq. We have not set down rigid time lines for the downsizing or withdrawal of troops. Rather, we have made that conditional upon progress on political development and security and, to a lesser extent but nevertheless important, on the third element, economic development, but particularly the first two. This is not a prediction or a pledge, because our movement of troops will be conditional on the conditions that I set out, but I have said that I envisage that the trained complement of the Iraqi army—the army and security forces are now 170,000 trained personnel—could begin the process of taking the lead, though not the exclusive capability, in some parts of Iraq in the next 12 months. We would provide multinational support for that as long as the Iraqi Government wish, but it is possible that that process will continue. Simultaneously over that period, we envisage that the political development—that is, the inclusion of the Sunnis in the commission to develop the constitution, thereafter the referendum on it, followed by the establishment of a full democratically elected Iraqi Government by the end of the year—will be progressing over the time lines that we have laid out. I hope that gives the hon. Gentleman some idea.