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Defence in the World

Thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak, Mr. Deputy Speaker. I had to think twice about whether I wanted to speak: this is a very sombre day. I shall confine my remarks to the subject of the nuclear deterrent. I do not want to be painted as some kind of eccentric or peacenik, or as someone who would gamble with the nation’s security. That is the charge that is normally levelled at people who question our need for the nuclear deterrent. It is a funny old world, is it not? We have a former Conservative Defence Secretary, Michael Portillo, saying publicly and very cogently that there are better ways of spending the money. I have often told people outside that this place is like a giant adult education institute where we can learn things. Four or five weeks ago, I learned a huge amount from Robert McNamara, who spoke in the Moses Room in the House of Lords. Opposition Members were present. It was as if I were in touch with history. Robert McNamara was 88 years old and as sharp as a tack—slightly deaf, but so impressive. There he was, 40 years ago, in the Oval Office at 4.30 pm on Saturday 27 October 1962—not as a note-taker but as an active participant, advising the President on how to respond to the Cuban missile crisis. There were three people in the Oval Office: McNamara himself, President Kennedy and the chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Robert McNamara referred to him as ““the chief””. Robert McNamara told us that the military were pressing for an invasion of Cuba. The military said that the CIA had intelligence showing that the missiles—there were photographs of them—did not have nuclear weapons on them. I was a paper boy at the time, frightened out of my wits like everyone else. Kennedy was told that there was a flotilla approaching Cuba with those nuclear warheads. The military said ““You have got to invade, Mr. President.”” Of course, Kennedy did not invade. The flotilla turned round and went back to the Soviet Union. Robert McNamara told us that it was only on the dissolution—the collapse—of the Soviet Union that we found out that there were missiles there that were targeted and had nuclear weapons attached. The information that the CIA and the military gave Kennedy was simply wrong. Had they decided, at 4.30 pm on Saturday 27 October 1962, to invade, there would probably not be a planet Earth now—or it would be just a charred sphere circling the sun. Robert McNamara spent a lot of time thinking about that. He is not a peacenik; he is not an eccentric; he is a man who knows what he is talking about. He is advocating a massive cutback in the world’s nuclear arsenal. He told us, and Opposition Members, that the United States had 6,000 strategic nuclear warheads, each with the destructive power to cause a Hiroshima. Of those 6,000 nuclear warheads, 2,000 are on hair-trigger alert, and can be launched in 15 minutes. Robert McNamara told us that that was"““so bizarre as to be beyond belief””." Despite the end of the cold war fifteen or so years ago, McNamara said that US nuclear weapons policies are today essentially what they were 40 years ago. He said that they are"““immoral, illegal, militarily unnecessary and very, very dangerous in terms of the risk of accidental use””." That is despite the non-proliferation regime that has been with us for 40 years. His speech was an education to me and to all those MPs and peers who listened to him with such rapt attention. It is not only Robert McNamara to whom we should listen. We should also listen to the former US Defence Secretary—a succession of Defence Secretaries are speaking out on this issue—William Perry, who served in the Clinton Administration. My friend the Secretary of State for Defence appeared to be unaware of William Perry’s remarks, which is unfortunate, because they are important. William Perry said:"““There is a greater than 50 per cent. probability of a nuclear detonation on US soil within the decade.””" Why did he say that? He said it because there is fissile material lying around all over the shop that is not being safeguarded. In the former Soviet Union, there are nuclear dumps everywhere. There are rotting nuclear submarines in the Arctic. The whole world is scattered with debris left over from the cold war. The US spends the staggering figure—I would run out of zeroes if I tried to write it down—of $400 billion on defence. Robert McNamara told us that if it spent a tiny fraction of that, perhaps $1 billion, on attempting to safeguard the fissile material, we would all sleep more safely in our beds.