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Pakistan and Kenya

My Lords, I join noble Lords in praising the work of our High Commissions in Kenya and Pakistan. The staffs of both offices have had a couple of very tough weeks and have delivered extraordinarily. On Kenya first, since noble Lords took the cases that way round, and on the issue of humanitarian assistance, because the violence and displacement is concentrated this time in rural areas we cannot speak with huge confidence about the level of access at the moment across the country or, indeed, whether there may not be pockets of violence that are continuing and have not yet been brought to the notice of those in Nairobi. It is fair to say that the Red Cross and the World Food Programme, which have traditionally used Kenya as hubs for their regional activities, have a huge capability deployed on the ground. Similarly, the good and bad news about Mombasa is that because it is the port hub for East Africa, food is able to be quickly moved from there across the country as long as access is possible. The bad news is, of course, that the disruption to Mombasa trade is clearly beginning to have a knock-on effect on Uganda and other neighbouring countries, as well as Kenya itself. The need quickly to return to a normalcy that allows the economic lifelines to resume is very great, and we shall continue to monitor it. While DfID has already made £1 million available, we will obviously be willing to make more available if resources become a constraint. Secondly, on the point that crude democracy is not good governance, we are all getting an important lesson from both countries on the importance of having a vision of democracy that involves not just getting people to the ballot box and having elections every five years but building a real democratic culture, in which there is protection of minority rights and real power-sharing in an appropriate way as well as strong rule of law, an independent judiciary and the media being able to operate without interruption. We are seeing the limits of that in both cases, although particularly in Pakistan. On the vote count in Kenya, it is difficult for us to be prescriptive about what is or is not possible. It would be very hard to reconstitute the paper trail of all the ballots as the voting actually happened. Certainly the rural count of votes seems to have been more reliable than the final tabulation and aggregation of votes in Nairobi at the centre, but it is hard to believe that there could be a vote count at this stage that would enjoy the confidence of all the parties. The key job of a mediator is to look at the range of issues: the demands for a recount; the possibility of new elections at a later date—a rerun of the elections, if you like; and, critically, the possibility of constitutional changes. This winner-takes-all approach, with power concentrated in the office of the president and not shared with a prime minister, is something that Kenyans themselves have recognised is a huge obstacle to participatory, inclusive government in the country. We expect President Kufuor to lead an effort that will do more than just start the process but will offer mediation and a way forward. Given that he already has a full-time job, I suspect that he may need to find others to help and support him in that process. We count on President Kufuor not only because he is a remarkable man—as noble Lords who know him will affirm—but also because he is the head of the AU and because Ghana is an important Commonwealth country. That combination of roles gives him the authority to lead an African approach to finding a solution. We will be extremely active, as we have been so far, in support of that mission to try to make it a success. I can confirm that President Kufuor will arrive in Nairobi tomorrow night and will begin work on Wednesday. A number of issues were raised about Pakistan, including the role of Scotland Yard. As the Statement mentioned, the Foreign Secretary met with Pakistani and other Asian community leaders this morning. I was at that meeting, and the Prime Minister joined it for a while. The point was made very clearly to him that Scotland Yard's integrity could be compromised if we were not clear about what it can or cannot do in a situation such as this one where a lot of the forensic evidence is no longer available. The Scotland Yard team will support the Pakistani investigation but it can only work with what evidence it can find. We recognise the possible limitations of that. I should say a word on the other points raised. First, the intertwining of Pakistan and Afghanistan is obviously critical. In reflecting on the way forward for Pakistan, we must all recognise that a border area which was traditionally peaceful has become increasingly radicalised and a threat to the Governments in Islamabad and Kabul. We need a policy that brings that region of Pakistan back under the rule of law as quickly as possible. Secondly, we acknowledge what was said about radicalism and terrorism and its roots here in the UK as well as in Pakistan itself. This tragedy has reminded everyone that this is a shared problem. We are certainly conscious of the issues of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb, but there is no evidence at this stage that the control of that by the Pakistani military is under any threat or has in any way been compromised. All of this points to the fact that the policy of the British Government must not be tied to individuals. The noble Lord suggested that the US Government had tied their flag to an electoral win by Benazir Bhutto. The British Government’s view is that the key objective for these elections is that all Pakistanis should believe that the result is credible. The elections will not meet western standards of freeness or fairness but everybody should believe that they broadly represent the opinion of Pakistan, because only from that starting point can a Government be built who can take on the critical issues of terrorism and radicalisation that were mentioned. So we are very concerned that our policy is seen as built around institutions and the integrity of Pakistan rather than around individuals.