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Railways: Investment

My Lords, first, I thank the Minister very much for repeating the Statement. I also thank him for the tone of his replies, particularly in his reference to the previous Administration. As he knows, I had a very minor part in the Department for Transport in that Administration and I welcome what he said. I am aware that, when a Statement is repeated from the Commons, we tend to hear rather more strident language than we normally would in this Chamber. I also endorse much of what the noble Lord, Lord Bradshaw, said. He is too modest. When the journey time between London and Cardiff was under four hours, it was when he was running the western region of British Railways. Indeed, that journey time is not that great an aspiration. I obviously welcome the continued commitment to High Speed 2, to the electrification programme in the north-west and to the Great Western main line as far as Newbury and Oxford. I should declare an unpaid interest as a member of the First Great Western advisory board. I want to press the noble Lord a little bit about what the mechanism will be for reviewing the possibility of going further west than Didcot. Is there a possibility, for example, that electrification will reach Bristol and is it the case that electrification to Cardiff and Swansea is dependent on the Welsh Government making some significant financial contribution? My worry about the Statement, which I would like the Minister to address, is the question of overcrowding. He will be aware that the figures from the Office of Rail Regulation show that services in London and the south-east are already seriously overcrowded, particularly on First Great Western, where they worsened from 6.5 per cent of passengers in excess of capacity in 2008 to 8.2 per cent in 2009. The consequence of the cascading of electrified stock from the existing Thameslink service to the new electrified services to Newbury and Oxford is that there will be a delay of four years. I am fearful that overcrowding will increase during those four years. I hope that the point made by my noble friend Lord Snape about the fare increases pricing people off the railway will not come to pass. Like the Minister, I am anxious to see the railway used to the maximum extent. It would be disastrous if we went back to the sort of policy that existed in the 1970s and 1980s, when the response to passenger demand was simply to put up the fares to choke it off. Will the Minister comment on overcrowding as well?