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Debate on the Address

My Lords, the gracious Speech touched upon a number of foreign policy issues, and rightly put the Government’s commitment to peace in the Middle East at the top of the list of priorities. That commitment repeated and re-emphasised the Prime Minister’s address to the Labour Party conference in September and his Mansion House speech last week. The recent changes in the American political landscape, the near certainty of foreign policy recalibration on Capitol Hill and the work of James Baker and the Iraq Survey Group, together with the departure of Donald Rumsfeld, give the Prime Minister a real opportunity, probably his best since 2001, to persuade our American colleagues of the changes that are needed in Middle East policy and to become that ““candid friend”” that the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, spoke of. The list of separate but related conflicts and explosive pressure points in the Middle East is daunting. Most days we have terrible news reports from Iraq: civilian casualties, sectarian barbarism and, all too often, the loss of our own brave troops. Iran has become a new test bed for the strength of the international community on controlling nuclear capability. Syria is at best unhelpful, and at worst probably very menacing. Its borders with Iraq are porous, and its encouragement of Hezbollah in Palestine and Lebanon threatens peace and stability throughout the whole region. Lebanon, despite its brave Prime Minister’s efforts, is fragile, afraid of the possibility of civil war or of renewed Syrian occupation. Palestine, of course, is split between Hamas and Fatah, with no obvious interlocutor to begin serious dialogue with Israel about Gaza, let alone about the West Bank and a possible return to the road map. That is perhaps a grim analysis, and, to be fair, it is only a partial one. There is much to give us some hope and some optimism about developments elsewherein the Middle East. The countries of the Gulf—Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwaitand Qatar—are all developing their economies and investing in their future. They are all different, and they are all adjusting their own constitutions to accommodate increased democracy and the growth of civil society. There are elections to bring different voices into the majlis shuras, as well as arrangements for women to be brought into government in Kuwait, Bahrain and the Emirates. Elections are scheduled in Qatar and in the Emirates. Perhaps most significantly, there is a promise of the vote for women in Saudi Arabia. These countries’ economies are all expanding rapidly by between 6 and 12 per cent, and they are all investing in their own people’s futures through education, health, science and technology. In the Maghreb countries there is more open discussion of human rights, and of the difficult balance between the security of the state and the rights of the citizen to enjoy civil liberty. Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria, each in different ways but all facing in the same direction, are engaged in a sustained effort to encourage better relations with Europe across an agenda of transparency and exchanges on trade, human rights and indeed on terrorism. Egypt is changing too. At the conference of its ruling party two months ago I heard delegates cross-examine Ministers about policies on the economy and rural development. There was aggressive questioning on human rights and Egypt’s policy on its relationship with Israel—the sort of exchanges that would have been quite unthinkable even a decade ago. Our support, even our advice and encouragement, are wanted and welcomed. However, when that support becomes lecturing or patronising, it is regarded with real and intense distaste. We have to guard against undermining the position of the real reformers—and there are many of them in the Middle East—by claiming that their reform is somehow the result of western pressure, rather than of their own hard work at home. We also have to guard against being perceivedas fostering double standards. If we encourage democracy, we have to live with its outcome. We have to talk to those who have been elected to represent the views of their people, even if that means opening channels of communication to organisations once considered beyond the pale—and by that, I mean Hamas and Hezbollah. By the same token, dialogue with Syria and Iran is vital; not just dialogue, but the active encouragement of the constructive involvement of both countries in the problems of Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon. I am very glad that Sir Nigel Sheinwald visited Damascus a couple of weeks ago, and I hope thathe goes again, and soon, because diplomatic relationships do not spring up overnight; they take wisdom, expertise and, above all, endless patience. Nowhere is that truer than in the Arab world. We need Syria to control its borders, its relationships with Hezbollah and its ambitions in Lebanon, and we must be prepared to discuss how we can help Syria into a genuinely constructive relationship in terms of international recognition, security and trade. Iran, too, is coupled with Syria, not because of common beliefs but because common isolation from international dialogue about the Middle East. It is an ancient and important country that is often at loggerheads with its Arab neighbours, and it is feared and mistrusted in Washington. But Iran is a player in Iraq. Like it or not, one of the objectives that we must have is to persuade the Iranians that a peaceful Iraq is in their best interests, and we must provide the incentive that makes their co-operation worthwhile. In Iraq, I hope that there will be a strong central Government that will survive; but the emergence of semi-autonomous or devolved regions, along the lines already developed in Kurdistan, deserves to be explored. I had some sympathy with the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, on his notion of a British Iraq survey group. I hope the United States Iraq survey group will look at all these options when it gives advice to the president; and like the noble Lord, Lord Wallace of Saltaire, I just hope that our own advice will not only have been sought but will be listened to and acted on. Nowhere is that more important than in relation to Palestine and Israel. Whenever I travel in the Middle East, the one visceral issue is not Iraq; it is not terrorism; it is not Lebanon; it is not even fears of Iran. It is that deep-rooted, gut-wrenching conflict, which has lain at the heart of so much international tension for so many years. It is not the only important issue, but without peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians the prospect of real peace and security elsewhere in the region and beyond is very low. The Israelis and the Palestinians are unlikely to find the solutions without international help, and here real American commitment is vital. It is the underlying bedrock without which there will be no peace. Active European engagement and real support from the major players in the Arab League are vital too in guaranteeing security for Israel and Palestine and the genuine economic viability of both states for the future. Of course Israel has a right to expect our support for the security of its citizens and for its future as an economically prosperous and respected Middle East state. Israel has recently made some progress in withdrawal from Gaza, but it must now make further progress. It has to safeguard those standards of humanitarian conduct that we all have a right to expect in the way that it treats Palestinians. A Palestinian state which is viable, which is continuous, and which has an economic future is the only way forward. A state that does not sanction attacks on its neighbours, but lives with the support not only of its Arab neighbours but of Europe and the United States, is not only in Israel’s best interests but in the interests of the entire region. The longer I have been involved with these issues, the more it seems to me that there is one simple and obvious truth—we have to talk to each other; not only to our friends and allies but to those who we fear and mistrust and, indeed, to those who we believe fear and mistrust us. History shows us that even where dialogue breaks down and violence breaks out, the only way for real peace and security to prevail is through discussion and negotiation. I hope that in the coming crucial months, our friends in the region, and particularly our friends across the Atlantic, will listen to that simple, but crucial, message.